高盛公司將本季度布倫特原油價(jià)格預(yù)測(cè)下調(diào)至每桶110美元  

高盛公司：油價(jià)上漲的可能性依然很大  

“創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的低備用產(chǎn)能”和低庫(kù)存仍是原油價(jià)格的強(qiáng)勁看漲因素 

據(jù)美國(guó)油價(jià)網(wǎng)8月8日?qǐng)?bào)道， 高盛公司將本季度布倫特原油價(jià)格預(yù)測(cè)下調(diào)至每桶110美元，低于此前預(yù)測(cè)的每桶140美元，但這家投行仍認(rèn)為，油價(jià)上漲的理由仍然很充分。

高盛公司8月7日在一份報(bào)告中稱，最近幾周，低交易流動(dòng)性和“上升的憂慮之墻”推低了油價(jià)。 高盛公司策略師指出，這些擔(dān)憂包括對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退的擔(dān)憂、美國(guó)釋放戰(zhàn)略石油儲(chǔ)備（SPR）、產(chǎn)能大國(guó)原油產(chǎn)量的反彈，以及與疫情相關(guān)的快速封鎖。 

高盛公司還將布倫特原油今年第四季度價(jià)格預(yù)期從此前的每桶130美元下調(diào)至每桶125美元。然而，其對(duì)2023年布倫特原油價(jià)格的預(yù)測(cè)仍維持在每桶125美元。 

高盛公司策略師在彭博新聞社刊發(fā)的一份報(bào)告中寫道：“我們認(rèn)為，即使假設(shè)所有這些負(fù)面沖擊都結(jié)束了，油價(jià)上漲的理由仍然很充分，近幾個(gè)月來，市場(chǎng)赤字仍高于我們的預(yù)期。”

高盛公司全年都在看漲油價(jià)，盡管下調(diào)了近期油價(jià)預(yù)期，但它仍在繼續(xù)看漲原油價(jià)格。

7月中旬，高盛公司表示，盡管市場(chǎng)拋售仍在持續(xù)，但“價(jià)格的走勢(shì)完全偏向上行”。  

高盛公司分析師在7月報(bào)告中寫道，由于庫(kù)存較低，且沙特阿拉伯/阿聯(lián)酋可能將本地區(qū)原油日產(chǎn)量提高50萬桶，這將進(jìn)一步耗盡“處于紀(jì)錄低位的備用產(chǎn)能”，油價(jià)上行的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)非常大。

在8月7日的報(bào)告中，高盛公司表示：“我們?nèi)灶A(yù)計(jì)布倫特原油價(jià)格將需要遠(yuǎn)高于市場(chǎng)遠(yuǎn)期價(jià)格?！?/p>

8月8日早盤，油價(jià)跌至數(shù)月低點(diǎn)，布倫特原油價(jià)格跌破每桶94美元，WTI原油價(jià)格略低于每桶88美元。 

李峻 編譯自 美國(guó)油價(jià)網(wǎng)

原文如下：

Goldman Sachs Cuts Oil Price Forecast To $110 This Quarter

·     Goldman Sachs revised down its Brent price forecast for this quarter to $110 a barrel.

·     Goldman Sachs: case for higher oil prices remains strong.

·    "Record low spare capacity" and low inventories remain a strong bullish factor for crude.

Goldman Sachs revised down its Brent price forecast for this quarter to $110 a barrel, down from a previous projection of $140 per barrel, but the investment bank still believes the case for higher oil prices remains strong.

In recent weeks, oil prices have been driven down by low trading liquidity and “a mounting wall of worries,” Goldman said in a note on Sunday. Those worries include fears of recession, the SPR release in the U.S., the rebound in the larger producer crude oil production, and snap COVID-related lockdowns, the bank’s strategists noted.  

Goldman Sachs also revised down its fourth-quarter Brent price forecast to $125 a barrel from $130 per barrel previously expected. The 2023 projection, however, was left unchanged at $125 per barrel.

“We believe that the case for higher oil prices remains strong, even assuming all these negative shocks play out, with the market remaining in a larger deficit than we expected in recent months,” Goldman Sachs’s strategists wrote in the note carried by Bloomberg.

The bank has been bullish on oil all year, and it continues to be bullish on crude prices despite the cut in its near-term price forecasts.

In the middle of July, Goldman Sachs said that despite the ongoing market sell-off, “the skew to prices from here is squarely skewed to the upside.”

With low inventories and a potential Saudi/UAE ramp-up in production in the region of 500,000 barrels per day (bpd), which will further deplete “record low spare capacity,” the risks are firmly skewed to the upside, Goldman Sachs’ analysts wrote in the note in July.

In yesterday’s note, Goldman said, “We still expect that Brent prices will need to rally well above market forwards.”

Oil prices were trading at multi-month lows early on Monday, with Brent below $94 per barrel and WTI Crude just below $88 per barrel.