據(jù)美國(guó)鉆井網(wǎng)站2022年8月16日?qǐng)?bào)道， 盡管全球部分地區(qū)最近疫情復(fù)發(fā)，但全球航空燃料需求已卷土重來(lái)，并將繼續(xù)增長(zhǎng)到2023年。 

美國(guó)銀行全球研究中心（BofA Global Research）最近在發(fā)給美國(guó)鉆井網(wǎng)站的一份新報(bào)告中指出，“由于邊境限制和旅行擔(dān)憂導(dǎo)致市場(chǎng)至關(guān)重要的每日800萬(wàn)桶航空燃料崩潰”，全球航空燃油價(jià)格在2020年和2021年落后于其他石油產(chǎn)品。

美國(guó)銀行全球研究報(bào)告稱：“盡管最近全球部分地區(qū)暴發(fā)了疫情，但航空旅行需求已卷土重來(lái)，機(jī)場(chǎng)和航班座位都已飽和。”

報(bào)告補(bǔ)充說(shuō)：“疫情后全球航空旅行的復(fù)蘇始于美洲，并擴(kuò)展到歐洲，隨著限制的放松，現(xiàn)在應(yīng)該會(huì)擴(kuò)展到亞洲，為原油和餾分油價(jià)格提供支持。”

美國(guó)銀行全球研究報(bào)告繼續(xù)表示，“因此，與遠(yuǎn)期市場(chǎng)價(jià)格為每桶91美元相比，我們繼續(xù)預(yù)計(jì)明年布倫特原油平均價(jià)格將達(dá)到每桶100美元，而餾分油對(duì)布倫特原油的裂解價(jià)格將接近每桶26美元，其中以航空燃油價(jià)格最高” 。

在這份報(bào)告中，美國(guó)銀行全球研究中心預(yù)測(cè)，由于疫情后需求復(fù)蘇和對(duì)石油的替代，全球石油日需求將增加170萬(wàn)桶。

報(bào)告指出：“由于航空旅行需求恢復(fù)正常，航空燃料在我們預(yù)計(jì)的明年石油燃料消費(fèi)增長(zhǎng)中應(yīng)占四分之一以上，甚至可能占到一半，而歷史上只有20%。”

美國(guó)銀行全球研究報(bào)告稱：“盡管如此，我們認(rèn)為的關(guān)鍵風(fēng)險(xiǎn)包括：（1）永久性的商務(wù)旅行需求破壞程度超出預(yù)期；（2）地緣政治風(fēng)險(xiǎn)；（3）一種新的致命病毒菌株意外地迫使邊境再次關(guān)閉。”

李峻 編譯自 美國(guó)鉆井網(wǎng)站

原文如下：

Jet Fuel Demand Back with a Vengeance

Jet fuel demand has come back with a vengeance, despite the recent bout of Covid-19, and should continue to grow into 2023.

That’s what BofA Global Research stated in a new report sent to Rigzone recently, which noted that jet fuel prices lagged other products in 2020 and 2021 “as the crucial eight million barrel per day market crashed on border restrictions and travel fears”.

“Yet air travel demand has come back with a vengeance despite the recent bout of Covid-19 infections, saturating airports and airline seats alike,” the BofA Global Research report stated.

“The post-pandemic global air travel recovery that started in the Americas and expanded to Europe should now expand to Asia as restrictions ease, lending support to both crude and distillate prices,” the report added.

“As such, we continue to expect Brent to average $100 per barrel next year compared to a forward market price of $91 per barrel, and distillate cracks against Brent to near $26 per barrel, with jet fuel leading,” the BofA Global Research report continued.

In the report, BofA Global Research forecasts global oil demand to grow by 1.7 million barrels per day “on a post-pandemic demand recovery and substitution into oil”.

“As air travel demand normalizes, jet should account for more than a quarter of our projected petroleum fuel consumption growth next year and possibly as much as half compared to just 20 percent historically,” the report noted.

“Still, key risks to our view include (1) deeper than expected permanent business travel demand destruction, (2) geopolitical risks acting as a deterrent to international travel, and (3) a new deadly viral strain that unexpectedly forces border closures again,” the BofA Global Research report continued.