據(jù)鉆機(jī)地帶9月5日?qǐng)?bào)道，根據(jù)惠譽(yù)解決方案國家風(fēng)險(xiǎn)與行業(yè)研究公司發(fā)布的一份新報(bào)告顯示，該公司再次維持布倫特原油價(jià)格預(yù)測不變。

該報(bào)告強(qiáng)調(diào)，該公司仍認(rèn)為布倫特原油2022年均價(jià)為105美元/桶，2023年100美元/桶，然后在2024年和2025年降至88美元/桶，2026年降至85美元/桶。這些價(jià)格預(yù)測與該公司8月和7月的預(yù)測一致。

該公司最新的價(jià)格預(yù)測是在布倫特經(jīng)歷了動(dòng)蕩的幾周后做出的，布倫特原油在8月29日收于每桶105.09美元，9月1日收于每桶92.36美元。布倫特原油的2022年迄今最高收盤價(jià)是3月8日，收于每桶127.98美元。到目前為止，該商品在2022年的最低收盤價(jià)為1月3日每桶78.98美元。

惠譽(yù)解決方案國家風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和行業(yè)研究分析師在該公司最新報(bào)告中表示，我們本月維持布倫特原油價(jià)格預(yù)測不變，2022年均價(jià)為105美元/桶，2023年100美元/桶。并補(bǔ)充道，我們的基本面前景大致保持不變，盡管前景面臨的廣泛風(fēng)險(xiǎn)繼續(xù)上升且價(jià)格仍然波動(dòng)。

在報(bào)告中，分析師們強(qiáng)調(diào)了布倫特原油價(jià)格的波動(dòng)，并指出，造成油價(jià)高波動(dòng)性的一個(gè)關(guān)鍵因素是持續(xù)的低流動(dòng)性。

這些分析師表示，石油交易的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，加上提交抵押品和滿足保證金要求的困難，削弱了流動(dòng)性，使市場容易受到頻繁的大幅價(jià)格波動(dòng)的影響。分析師補(bǔ)充稱，與此同時(shí)，布倫特原油正被相互沖突的價(jià)格驅(qū)動(dòng)因素所左右，目前供應(yīng)和需求方面的前景都高度不確定。我們預(yù)計(jì)短期內(nèi)波動(dòng)性不會(huì)減弱，我們認(rèn)為上行和下行的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)大致平衡。

在撰寫本文時(shí)，布倫特原油的交易價(jià)格為每桶95.57美元。

郝芬 譯自 鉆機(jī)地帶

原文如下：

Fitch Solutions Offers Latest Oil Price Prediction

Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research has left its Brent crude forecast unchanged again, a new report from the company has revealed.

The company still sees the Brent price averaging $105 per barrel in 2022 and $100 per barrel in 2023, before dropping to $88 per barrel in 2024 and 2025, and $85 per barrel in 2026, the report highlighted. These price predictions are identical to company forecasts made in August and July.

The company’s latest price projections come after a volatile few weeks for Brent, which has seen the commodity close at $105.09 per barrel on August 29 and $92.36 per barrel on September 1. Brent’s highest close in 2022, so far, was seen on March 8, at $127.98 per barrel. The lowest the commodity has closed in 2022, so far, is $78.98 per barrel, on January 3.

“We have left our Brent crude price forecast unchanged this month, at an average of $105 per barrel in 2022 and $100 per barrel in 2023,” Fitch Solutions Country Risk and Industry Research analysts stated in the company’s latest report.

“Our fundamental outlook remains broadly unchanged, although a broad range of risks to the outlook continue to rise and prices remain volatile,” the analysts added.

In the report, the analysts highlighted swings in Brent and noted that a key factor in the high volatility seen in prices is the ongoing low liquidity.

“The riskiness of oil trading combined with difficulties in posting collateral and meeting margin calls has sapped liquidity, leaving the market vulnerable to large and frequent price swings,” the analysts stated.

“Meanwhile Brent is being torn between conflicting price drivers, with both the supply and demand-side outlooks highly uncertain at this stage. We do not expect volatility to abate in the near term and see the risks to our outlook as being broadly balanced to the upside and the down,” the analysts added.

At the time of writing, the price of Brent crude oil is trading at $95.57 per barrel.