高盛投資公司將其油價(jià)預(yù)測(cè)每桶下調(diào)了10美元

高盛投資銀行還指出，在歐盟禁運(yùn)之前，石油出口增加是修正預(yù)測(cè)的一個(gè)原因

據(jù)油價(jià)網(wǎng)11月21日?qǐng)?bào)道，高盛投資銀行將其對(duì)油價(jià)的預(yù)測(cè)每桶下調(diào)了10美元，至每桶100美元。

據(jù)財(cái)經(jīng)網(wǎng)站ForexLive報(bào)道，這家美國(guó)著名投行的分析師還指出，在下個(gè)月歐盟禁運(yùn)生效前，石油出口增加是修正預(yù)測(cè)的另一個(gè)原因。  

今年的油價(jià)預(yù)測(cè)背景發(fā)生了很大變化，可以從高盛投資銀行1月份的預(yù)測(cè)中看出。當(dāng)時(shí)高盛投資銀行曾警告稱，布倫特原油可能在今年的某個(gè)時(shí)候每桶突破100美元。  

這可能比許多人預(yù)期的要早。盡管如此，在超過100美元的峰值之后，原油價(jià)格一直在下跌，并保持在三位數(shù)的閾值以下，盡管許多人認(rèn)為，油價(jià)再次反彈到100美元上方只是時(shí)間問題。

高盛投資銀行是樂觀的預(yù)測(cè)者之一，其分析師10月早些時(shí)候表示，布倫特原油價(jià)格可能比此前預(yù)期的更早回到每桶100美元上方。 事實(shí)上，他們表示，布倫特原油價(jià)格明年可能突破每桶125美元。

一些分析師，如丹麥?zhǔn)氥y行的Ole Hansen也指出，歐佩克+的減產(chǎn)將減少未來幾個(gè)月的全球原油供應(yīng)，而對(duì)石油的需求預(yù)計(jì)將在禁運(yùn)期間增加。

根據(jù)總部位于沙特阿拉伯利雅得的能源智庫(kù)——國(guó)際能源論壇公布的數(shù)據(jù)，由于禁運(yùn)，石油供應(yīng)量可能每日減少100萬至300萬桶，這無疑將對(duì)油價(jià)產(chǎn)生影響。 中國(guó)的新冠肺炎政策可能會(huì)緩解這一影響，遏制潛在的上漲。

李峻 編譯自 油價(jià)網(wǎng)

原文如下：

Goldman Sachs Slashes Oil Price Forecast By $10

·     Goldman Sachs has cut its oil price forecast by $10.

·     Goldman also noted an increase in Russian oil exports ahead of the EU embargo as a cause for the forecast revision.

Goldman Sachs has cut its oil price forecast by $10 to $100 per barrel.

The investment bank’s analysts also noted the increased exports of oil before the European Union embargo goes into effect next month as another reason for the forecast revision, according to ForexLive.

Just how much the oil price forecast context has changed this year shows in Goldman’s forecasts from January, when the bank warned that Brent could top $100 per barrel at some point in 2022.

That happened perhaps earlier than many have expected. Still, after that over-$100 peak, crude oil prices have fallen and stayed below the three-digit threshold, even though many argue that it’s a matter of time before they rebound above $100 again.

Goldman is one of the bullish forecasters, with its analysts saying earlier this month that Brent crude could return to above $100 sooner than previously thought. In fact, they said that Brent could breach $125 per barrel next year 

Some analysts, such as Danish Saxo Bank’s Ole Hansen, also note the OPEC+ production cut, which will reduce the globally available supply of crude oil in the coming months, while demand for oil is expected to increase amid the embargo.

According to the International Energy Forum, a Saudi-based energy think-tank, oil supply could drop by between one and three million barrels daily because of the embargo, which will undoubtedly have an impact on prices. Chinese Covid policies could mitigate this impact, capping a potential rally.