據(jù)油價(jià)新聞網(wǎng)1月31日消息稱，原油價(jià)格已經(jīng)找到了一個(gè)最低點(diǎn)，他們唯一的出路就是走高。這是彭博社援引RBC大宗商品分析師Helima Croft和Michael Tran的說法。

他們表示：“我們對基本框架保持建設(shè)性，事實(shí)上，如果今年的低點(diǎn)最終達(dá)到三周前在今年第二個(gè)交易日看到的每桶72美元的水平，我們一點(diǎn)也不會感到驚訝。”他們補(bǔ)充說，亞洲的重新開放因素尚未完全在石油市場受到充分重視與計(jì)價(jià)體現(xiàn)。

這聽起來可能有點(diǎn)令人驚訝，因?yàn)閬喼薜闹匦麻_放被認(rèn)為是油價(jià)最近攀升的最大原因，也是全球市場前進(jìn)的最大動能。

Michael Tran在接受彭博社采訪時(shí)表示：“我們認(rèn)為，隨著亞洲的重新開放，石油市場還沒有多少價(jià)格體現(xiàn)，原因是消費(fèi)走向正常化的道路仍將相當(dāng)坎坷。”

Tran表示，這條正常化道路的標(biāo)志可能是進(jìn)口量的增加，目前仍比疫情前的水平低約150萬至170萬桶/日。

不過，這位分析師指出，并非所有這些交易量都需要回歸，油價(jià)才會飆升。Tran告訴彭博社：“這里的關(guān)鍵點(diǎn)是，我們不需要把所有這些都恢復(fù)到市場大幅反彈的水平。如果在接下來的幾個(gè)月里開始每天增加25萬桶、50萬桶或100萬桶，最好押注這將是一個(gè)走高的石油市場”。

梁金燕 編譯自 油價(jià)新聞網(wǎng)

原文如下：

RBC: Oil Prices Will only Go Higher From Here

Crude oil prices have found a floor and the only way they can go from here would be higher. That’s according to RBC commodity analysts Helima Croft and Michael Tran, as quoted by Bloomberg.

“We remain constructive on the fundamental framework, and in fact, we would not be the least bit surprised if the lows of the year end up being the US$72/bbl (per barrel) print that we saw three weeks ago on the second trading day of the year,” they said, adding that China’s reopening had not yet been fully priced in to the oil market.

This might sound a bit surprising given that China’s reopening is being cited as the biggest reason behind oil prices’ recent climb upwards and as the biggest tailwind for them going forward.

Yet with reports coming in about still high infection rates in the world’s largest importer of crude oil, it may well be the case that China’s reopening has not yet been priced in to the oil market.

“We don't think that there's much that's being priced into the oil market as a function of China's reopening yet and the reason why is because the consumer path towards normalization is still going to be quite bumpy,” Michael Tran told Bloomberg in an interview.

This path to normalization will likely be marked by an increase in imports, which are still about 1.5 to 1.7 million bpd below where they were pre-pandemic, according to Tran.

Not all of these volumes need to return for oil prices to spike, the analyst noted, however. “The key idea here is we don't need to get all of that back for the market to rally significantly. If you start picking up a quarter million, half million, [or] one million barrels a day over the course of the next several months, you better bet that this is going to be an oil market that moves higher,” Tran told Bloomberg.