自2022年3月8日的高點(diǎn)以來，經(jīng)通貨膨脹調(diào)整后的油價(jià)目前已在一年內(nèi)下滑了40%

加息和對(duì)美國經(jīng)濟(jì)可能放緩的擔(dān)憂正在拉低油價(jià)

盡管擔(dān)心利率上升，許多大型石油交易商預(yù)計(jì)原油價(jià)格將在2023年下半年重新爬升至100美元

據(jù)油價(jià)網(wǎng)3月11日?qǐng)?bào)道，自從去年年底抹去油價(jià)漲幅以來，油價(jià)一直陷于緊張的區(qū)間。

在去年的大部分時(shí)間里，對(duì)重大石油供應(yīng)沖擊的擔(dān)憂決定了市場(chǎng)情緒和交易者的心理定位。但即使在歐盟禁運(yùn)以及原油和石油產(chǎn)品的價(jià)格上限生效后，油價(jià)也沒有飆升。

產(chǎn)能大國正在將其石油出口轉(zhuǎn)向亞洲，而歐洲正在從中東、亞洲和美國購買更多原油和產(chǎn)品。

然而，這個(gè)幾十年來全球石油貿(mào)易中最重要的轉(zhuǎn)變之一，并沒有成為最近幾周石油市場(chǎng)的關(guān)鍵驅(qū)動(dòng)力。

關(guān)鍵驅(qū)動(dòng)力是經(jīng)濟(jì)。世界上最大的兩個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)體的通貨膨脹、制造業(yè)、就業(yè)和商業(yè)活動(dòng)數(shù)據(jù)，是現(xiàn)在石油期貨市場(chǎng)的主要驅(qū)動(dòng)力。

美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)正在密切關(guān)注美國的每一個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)點(diǎn)，以衡量是加快還是放慢加息步伐。更強(qiáng)勁的美國經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)和仍然很高的通貨膨脹率可能促使美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)比最初預(yù)期提高更高利率，這也大幅提升未來幾個(gè)月出現(xiàn)實(shí)質(zhì)性放緩甚至衰退的可能性。

另一方面，市場(chǎng)——包括石油期貨市場(chǎng)——正在密切關(guān)注亞洲的經(jīng)濟(jì)趨勢(shì)，市場(chǎng)已經(jīng)從近三年的封鎖中重新開放，預(yù)計(jì)今年的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長和石油消費(fèi)將出現(xiàn)反彈。

這兩股對(duì)立的經(jīng)濟(jì)力量目前正將石油市場(chǎng)拉向相反的方向，使價(jià)格停留在每桶布倫特80美元至85美元的狹窄范圍。

盛寶銀行本周在周五的美國就業(yè)報(bào)告前表示：“幾個(gè)月來的區(qū)間波動(dòng)，在供需相關(guān)消息平衡的情況下，市場(chǎng)可能會(huì)密切關(guān)注風(fēng)險(xiǎn)偏好的總體水平，這一點(diǎn)目前由FOMC及其對(duì)市場(chǎng)數(shù)據(jù)的密切關(guān)注決定。”

路透社的高級(jí)市場(chǎng)分析師John Kemp指出，自2022年3月8日的高點(diǎn)以來，油價(jià)在一年內(nèi)已經(jīng)下滑了40%，這是在地緣政治沖突發(fā)生幾周之后。此外，前月合約的價(jià)格波動(dòng)率已降至年化25%以下，而去年3月的波動(dòng)率為88%。

加息和對(duì)美國經(jīng)濟(jì)可能放緩的擔(dān)憂正在拉低油價(jià)。

OANDA美洲區(qū)高級(jí)市場(chǎng)分析師Ed Moya周四表示：“增長減速繼續(xù)拖累原油價(jià)格，但如果對(duì)美國經(jīng)濟(jì)硬著陸的擔(dān)憂得到緩解，WTI原油可能在每桶80美元以上找到落點(diǎn)。”

同時(shí)，對(duì)市場(chǎng)經(jīng)濟(jì)和石油需求反彈的預(yù)期也限制了下行空間。如果市場(chǎng)在重啟后強(qiáng)勁反彈，考慮到全球庫存低于五年平均水平，而且出現(xiàn)了實(shí)物原油市場(chǎng)收緊的跡象，價(jià)格可能突破近期的緊張區(qū)間。

世界上最大的一些石油實(shí)物交易商說，在美國經(jīng)濟(jì)軟著陸的情況下，價(jià)格可能很快達(dá)到每桶90美元。

托克公司(Trafigura)的石油交易聯(lián)席主管Ben Luckock在本周的CERAWeek能源會(huì)議上說，由于過去一年石油貿(mào)易的重大轉(zhuǎn)變，該公司預(yù)計(jì)原油價(jià)格將開始上漲。

曹海斌 編譯自 油價(jià)網(wǎng)

Will We See A Return Of Triple Digit Oil This Year?

Oil prices, adjusted for inflation, have now slumped by 40% in one year since March 8, 2022, high.

The rate hikes and concerns about a potential slowdown in the U.S. economy are pulling oil prices down.

Despite fears of rising interest rates, many large oil traders expect crude prices to creep back toward $100 in the second half of 2023.

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Oil prices have been stuck in a tight range since erasing the gains of the war at the end of last year. 

For most of last year, fears of a major oil supply shock dictated market sentiment and the positioning of traders. But oil prices didn’t surge even after the EU embargoes and the G7 price caps on crude oil and petroleum products came into effect.  

The largger producer is rerouting its oil exports to Asia, while Europe is buying more crude and products from the Middle East, Asia, and the United States. 

Yet, one of the most significant shifts in global oil trade in decades has not been the key driving force in oil markets in recent weeks. 

It’s the economy. Inflation, manufacturing, employment, and business activity data from the United States etc.– the world’s two largest economies – are the primary drivers of the oil futures market now.

The Fed is closely watching every economic data point in the United States to gauge whether to accelerate or slow the pace of interest rate hikes. Stronger U.S. economic data and still high inflation could prompt the Federal Reserve to increase interest rates more than initially expected, raising the odds of a material slowdown and even recession in the coming months.  

On the other hand, the markets – including the oil futures market – are closely watching the economic trends in Asia, which has reopened from almost three years of zero-Covid lockdowns and is expected to see a rebound in economic growth and oil consumption this year.  

These two opposing economic forces are currently pulling the oil market in opposite directions, leaving prices stuck in a narrow $80-$85 range per barrel Brent. 

“Rangebound for months and in no hurry to change that amid a balanced flow of supply and demand related news, the market is likely to pay close attention to the general level of risk appetite which is currently being dictated by the FOMC and its close attention to incoming data,” Saxo Bank said this week just before Friday’s U.S. jobs report.  

Oil prices, adjusted for inflation, have now slumped by 40% in one year since March 8, 2022, high, weeks after the war, Reuters’ senior market analyst John Kemp notes. Moreover, the price volatility in the front-month contract has dipped to an annualized rate of less than 25%, compared to 88% in March last year. 

The rate hikes and concerns about a potential slowdown in the U.S. economy are pulling oil prices down. 

“Decelerating growth continues to weigh on crude prices but if fears of a hard landing for the US economy are alleviated, WTI crude could find a home above the $80 a barrel,” Ed Moya, Senior Market Analyst, The Americas at OANDA, said on Thursday. 

At the same time, expectations of a economic and oil demand rebound are limiting the downside. If the market rebounds strongly after the reopening, prices could break above the recent tight range, considering that global inventories are below the five-year average and signs are emerging of a tighter physical crude market. 

In a soft landing for the U.S. economy, prices could soon hit $90 per barrel, some of the world’s biggest physical traders of oil say. 

Trafigura expects prices to start rising due to the major shifts in oil trade over the past year, its co-head of oil trading Ben Luckock said at the CERAWeek energy conference this week.