理论免费-理论片国产-理论片久久-理论片毛片-日韩午夜-日韩午夜r电影在线观看

  • 全國

貨幣力量正在逐步拉低布倫特原油價格

   2023-05-16 互聯網綜合消息

128

核心提示:據鉆井地帶網站5月10日報道,美國銀行全球研究部(BofA Global Research)在一份新報告中表示,貨幣力量正在

據鉆井地帶網站5月10日報道,美國銀行全球研究部(BofA Global Research)在一份新報告中表示,貨幣力量正在拖垮布倫特原油價格,該報告顯示,該公司已下調2023年布倫特原油平均價格預測。

美國銀行全球研究分析師在報告中表示:“自我們上次在2月份更新預測以來,布倫特原油價格在3月份與美國區域銀行股價一起下跌,但在4月份因歐佩克+宣布大幅減產而回升。”

宏觀經濟疲軟導致布倫特原油價格持續走低

“然而,隨著對金融業健康狀況的擔憂加劇,宏觀經濟疲軟一直在拖累布倫特原油價格走低。”分析師們補充道。

在這份報告中,美國銀行全球研究分析師表示,如果有必要,歐佩克+似乎致力于進一步削減石油產量。他們還在報告中提到,在亞洲經濟顯示出復蘇跡象時,油價下跌應該會刺激石油需求。

無論如何,貨幣收緊往往會比通脹下降提前一兩年。分析師在報告中警告說,持續的銀行破產有可能引發信貸收縮,從而導致需求和大宗商品價格下跌。

如果美國小型企業在2023年下半年因信貸收縮而停止招聘,汽油需求可能會受到進一步的影響,石油將失去部分核心優勢。分析師補充稱:“從基本面來看,在2022年經歷了一段強勁的現貨溢價期后,2023年石油庫存上升導致石油橫向時間套利的日歷價差正在逐步減弱。”

2023年美銀布倫特原油預測

在報告中,美國銀行全球研究分析師透露,他們已將2023年和2024年的全球石油消費增長預期分別下調至每日120萬桶和每日100萬桶。分析師在報告中指出,這一減產是由于經合組織預計需求收縮40萬桶/天,今年和明年每天收縮20萬桶。

“但即使需求前景疲軟,我們預計2023年下半年石油市場赤字約為每天100萬桶,2024年石油市場赤字為每天40萬桶,為布倫特原油價格提供支撐。”分析師在報告中表示。

“誠然,如果歐佩克+選擇將其減產幅度再加深50萬桶/日或100萬桶/日,這些赤字可能會擴大。”分析師補充道。

“由于負面的宏觀趨勢將放大未來的需求疲軟情況,我們將2023年布倫特原油平均價格預測下調至每桶80美元。即便如此,我們仍將2024年布倫特原油價格預測維持在每桶90美元,因為我們相信經合組織的需求最終將會改善,而歐佩克+可能會繼續積極主動地管理供應。”分析師們繼續說道。

張璐婕 編譯自 鉆井地帶 網站

原文如下:Monetary Forces Are Dragging Down Brent Oil Prices

Monetary forces are dragging down Brent crude prices, BofA Global Research stated in a new report, which revealed that the company has cut its average Brent price forecast for 2023.

“Since we last updated our forecasts in February, Brent crude prices have fallen with regional U.S. bank shares in March only to recover in April as OPEC+ announced a big production cut,” BofA Global Research analysts stated in the report.

'Macro weakness has kept dragging Brent crude prices lower'.

“Yet macro weakness has kept dragging Brent crude prices lower as concerns mounted over the health of the financial sector,” the analysts added.

“While central banks continue to overcorrect for their last policy mistake (high inflation), oil is rushing to anticipate disinflation and a U.S. recession driven by bank failures and tighter lending conditions,” the analysts continued.

“On top of that, U.S. debt ceiling tensions risk further exacerbating these negative macro headwinds, with credit default swaps (CDS) on U.S. Treasuries now trading at the highest levels since 2009,” the analysts went on to note.

In the report, BofA Global Research analysts stated that OPEC+ seems committed to cut oil output further if the need arises. They also said in the report that lower oil prices should incentivize demand at a time Asian economy is showing signs of a recovery.

“At any rate, tighter money tends to precede falling inflation by a year or two. Continued bank failures risk triggering a credit contraction that drags demand down and commodity prices lower,” the analysts warned in the report.

“Should small U.S. businesses stop hiring in 2H23 as credit shrinks, gasoline demand could suffer and oil would lose some of its core strength. Fundamentally, following a robust period of backwardation in 2022, oil timespreads have weakened in 2023 on rising oil inventories,” the analysts added.

2023 BofA Brent Forecast

In the report, the BofA Global Research analysts revealed that they had revised down their global oil consumption growth expectations to 1.2 million barrels per day and one million barrels per day in 2023 and 2024, respectively. The analysts stated in the report that this cut is driven by an expected OECD demand contraction of 0.4 million barrels per day and 0.2 million barrels per day this year and next year.

“But even with a weaker demand outlook, we project oil market deficits of around one million barrels per day for 2H23 and 0.4 million barrels per day for 2024, lending support to Brent crude oil prices,” the analysts said in the report.

“Admittedly, these deficits could grow wider if OPEC+ chooses to deepen its production cuts by another 0.5 million barrels per day or one million barrels per day,” the analysts added.

“With negative macro trends poised to amplify demand weakness ahead, we cut our average Brent crude oil price forecast to $80 per barrel in 2023. Even then, we leave our 2024 Brent crude oil forecast at $90 per barrel because we believe OECD demand will eventually improve while OPEC+ will likely keep proactively and pre-emptively managing supply,” the analysts continued.



免責聲明:本網轉載自其它媒體的文章及圖片,目的在于弘揚石化精神,傳遞更多石化信息,宣傳國家石化產業政策,展示國家石化產業形象,參與國際石化產業輿論競爭,提高國際石化產業話語權,并不代表本網贊同其觀點和對其真實性負責,在此我們謹向原作者和原媒體致以崇高敬意。如果您認為本站文章及圖片侵犯了您的版權,請與我們聯系,我們將第一時間刪除。
 
 
更多>同類資訊
  • china
  • 沒有留下簽名~~
推薦圖文
推薦資訊
點擊排行
網站首頁  |  關于我們  |  聯系方式  |  使用說明  |  隱私政策  |  免責聲明  |  網站地圖  |   |  工信部粵ICP備05102027號

粵公網安備 44040202001354號

 
主站蜘蛛池模板: 日本在线视频二区 | 国产一区二区三区视频在线观看 | 亚洲综合日韩中文字幕v在线 | 最近中文字幕免费国语 | 亚洲日韩精品欧美一区二区 | 日韩日b视频 | 大又大又黄又爽免费毛片 | 欧美日韩亚洲综合 | 波多野结衣视频在线观看地址免费 | 精品久久久一二三区 | 国产精品久久久久久久 | 中文字幕成人免费高清在线视频 | 午夜网站在线播放 | 免费看欧美一级片 | 天天操天天射天天操 | 在线欧美国产 | 一插菊花网 | 日皮视频免费 | 久久精品人人爽人人爽 | haose08永久免费视频 | 午夜在线观看免费观看大全 | 日韩版码免费福利视频 | 六月丁香激情 | 玖玖精品在线 | 曰批全过程免费视频网址 | 日韩成人三级 | 国产h视频 | 欧美成人免费一区在线播放 | 亚洲免费黄色 | 色综合天天干 | 一级特黄aaa大片免费看 | 老色批影院 | 国内成人免费视频 | 波多野结衣一区二区三区高清在线 | 91看片淫黄大片在看 | 国产精品欧美激情第一页 | 一本到视频 | 日本宅男午夜免费永久网站 | 亚洲视色 | 丝袜国产| 亚洲国产成人久久一区久久 |