據(jù)鉆機(jī)地帶6月14日?qǐng)?bào)道，根據(jù)澳大利亞智庫氣候能源金融（CEF）的一項(xiàng)新研究，太陽能成本將在2030年前減半，這將加速全球能源市場的混亂，同時(shí)推動(dòng)能源轉(zhuǎn)型。

CEF在其“太陽能樞紐”報(bào)告中預(yù)測，2023年太陽能安裝量將達(dá)到歷史最高水平，同比增長30%～50%。據(jù)該報(bào)告稱，到2030年，隨著全球太陽能組件供應(yīng)鏈的“急劇擴(kuò)張”和本十年剩余時(shí)間太陽能成本的回落，太陽能年總安裝量可能達(dá)到1000吉瓦。

CEF表示，IEA“一直低估了太陽能部署的速度、太陽能發(fā)電成本的大幅下降，以及相應(yīng)地對(duì)全球化石燃料行業(yè)的破壞”。

據(jù)《國際能源署2022年世界能源展望》報(bào)告估計(jì)，在2050年實(shí)現(xiàn)凈零排放的情況下，到2030年，太陽能年裝機(jī)量將達(dá)462吉瓦。CEF預(yù)計(jì)，“全球裝機(jī)的制造能力可能是這個(gè)數(shù)字的兩倍”。

據(jù)報(bào)告稱，太陽能投資正在“蓬勃發(fā)展”，2023年這一趨勢正在加速。對(duì)于越來越多的全球市場來說，太陽能是新發(fā)電成本最低的來源，即使不包括碳排放價(jià)格。

與此同時(shí)，CEF的報(bào)告稱，太陽能組件的關(guān)鍵原材料多晶硅的價(jià)格自2022年12月以來下降了三分之二，至2023年6月的每公斤11美元，導(dǎo)致太陽能組件價(jià)格較2021年下降了三分之一，到2023年5月的每瓦18美分。自2021年底達(dá)到峰值以來，全球貨運(yùn)成本也下降了80%以上。CEF預(yù)計(jì)，本十年太陽能電力成本每年將進(jìn)一步下降10%，到2030年減半。

太陽能安裝趨勢

CEF報(bào)告指出，彭博新能源財(cái)經(jīng)(BNEF)估計(jì)，2022年全球太陽能裝機(jī)容量達(dá)到歷史最高水平268吉瓦，而2022年底全球太陽能組件制造裝機(jī)容量為600吉瓦。CEF預(yù)測，如果目前宣布的大部分太陽能產(chǎn)能擴(kuò)張計(jì)劃繼續(xù)下去，到2024—2025年，產(chǎn)能將翻一番。據(jù)該報(bào)告稱，大多數(shù)擴(kuò)建項(xiàng)目將在亞洲大國實(shí)施，但美國、印度和歐盟(EU)的計(jì)劃擴(kuò)建產(chǎn)能也將是目前的三到五倍。

十年來，太陽能的年裝機(jī)量每年都創(chuàng)歷史新高。據(jù)報(bào)告稱，2022年，亞洲大國太陽能累計(jì)裝機(jī)容量達(dá)到414.5吉瓦，居世界首位，其次是歐盟209.3吉瓦，美國141.6吉瓦，日本84.9吉瓦，印度79.1吉瓦。

根據(jù)印度中央電力局更新的《國家電力計(jì)劃》，印度將在未來五年內(nèi)避免建造新的煤電廠，因?yàn)樗哪繕?biāo)是增加可再生能源的使用。該計(jì)劃被視為朝著印度到2030年提高可再生能源在其能源結(jié)構(gòu)中的份額的目標(biāo)邁出的一步，到2030年將其非化石燃料能源發(fā)電量提高到500吉瓦。截至2023年4月，印度安裝了125吉瓦的可再生能源，占該國總裝機(jī)發(fā)電量的30%。

根據(jù)該報(bào)告，印度引入了40%的太陽能組件進(jìn)口稅和太陽能性能掛鉤計(jì)劃（PLI），以激勵(lì)太陽能制造，從而實(shí)現(xiàn)了110吉瓦的組件制造承諾。

與此同時(shí)，該報(bào)告稱，《美國通脹削減法案》正在激勵(lì)清潔能源投資的激增，到2024年，美國太陽能組件的制造能力將增長六倍，到本十年末，太陽能年裝機(jī)量可能翻一番，達(dá)到40吉瓦～50吉瓦。

郝芬 譯自 鉆機(jī)地帶

原文如下：

Solar Costs to Disrupt Global Energy Markets: Think-Tank

Costs for solar energy will halve before 2030, accelerating disruption in global energy markets while driving the energy transition, according to a new study by Climate Energy Finance (CEF), an Australia-based think tank.

In its “Solar Pivot” report, CEF forecasts record solar installation in 2023, with growth of 30 to 50 percent year over year. Total solar installation could reach 1,000 gigawatts (GW) per year by 2030, riding on the “dramatic expansion” of solar module supply chains globally and a return to solar cost deflation over the rest of this decade, the report said.

CEF said that the International Energy Agency (IEA) has “consistently underestimated the rate of solar deployments, the massive deflation of solar generation costs, and accordingly the disruption of the global fossil fuel industry”.

The “IEA World Energy Outlook 2022” report estimated 462 GW of annual solar installs to 2030 under its Net Zero by 2050 scenario. CEF projects that “there is likely to be manufacturing capacity for world installs of double this [number]”.

Investments in solar energy are “booming”, and the trend is accelerating in 2023, according to the report. For an increasing number of global markets, solar is the lowest cost source of new electricity generation, even without a price on carbon emissions, the report said.

Meanwhile, prices of polysilicon, a key raw material in solar modules, dropped two-thirds since December 2022 to just $11 per kilogram in June 2023, causing solar module prices to dip by a third from 2021 to 18 cents per watt in May 2023, the CEF report said. Global freight costs have also declined more than 80 percent since the peak at the end of 2021. CEF expects solar electricity costs to further drop 10 percent annually this decade, halving by 2030.

Solar Installation Trends

Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) estimated the world installed a record 268 GW of solar in 2022, relative to the installed world solar module manufacturing capacity of 600 GW at the end of 2022, the CEF report noted. CEF forecasts that if most of the current announcements of solar manufacturing capacity expansions proceed, the capacity will double by 2024-2025. The majority of the expansion projects will be in the biggest country in Asia, but the USA, India, and the European Union (EU) will also see a planned expansion capacity of three to five times the current figures, the report said.

Solar energy has seen record rates of annual installation every year for a decade. The biggest country in Asia leads the world with a cumulative 414.5 GW of solar installed by 2022, followed by the EU at 209.3 GW, the USA at 141.6 GW, Japan at 84.9 GW, and India at 79.1 GW, the report said.

India will avoid building new coal power plants in the next five years as it targets to boost its use of renewables to generate electricity, according to the updated National Electricity Plan by the country’s Central Electricity Authority. The plan is seen as a step toward India’s target of raising the share of renewables in its energy mix by 2030, increasing its non-fossil fuel energy capacity to 500 gigawatts by 2030. As of April 2023, India had 125 GW of renewable energy installed, representing 30 percent of the country’s total installed capacity.

According to the report, India introduced a 40 percent solar module import duty and a Solar Performance linked Scheme (PLI) to incentivize solar manufacturing, leading to 110 GW of module manufacturing commitments.

Meanwhile, the USA Inflation Reduction Act is spurring a surge of clean energy investments, “with a sixfold expansion in US solar module manufacturing capacity by 2024 and a likely doubling of annual solar installs to 40 to 50 GW annually through to the end of this decade”, the report said.