據(jù)美國(guó)鉆井地帶網(wǎng)站2023年7月17日?qǐng)?bào)道，國(guó)際能源署(IEA)在其最新一期的《石油市場(chǎng)報(bào)告》(OMR)中表示，今年全球石油日需求量將增加220萬(wàn)桶，日需求量將達(dá)到歷史最高水平的1.021億桶。  

IEA預(yù)計(jì)，明年全球石油日需求增長(zhǎng)將放緩至110萬(wàn)桶。IEA表示：“充滿挑戰(zhàn)的經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境正在給全球石油需求增長(zhǎng)帶來(lái)壓力，尤其是由于許多發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家和發(fā)展中國(guó)家在過(guò)去12個(gè)月里大幅收緊貨幣政策。”

IEA預(yù)測(cè)，今年全球石油日產(chǎn)量將增加160萬(wàn)桶，達(dá)到1.015億桶，其中非歐佩克+國(guó)家的石油日產(chǎn)量預(yù)計(jì)將增加190萬(wàn)桶。IEA預(yù)計(jì)，明年全球石油日供應(yīng)量將增加120萬(wàn)桶，日供應(yīng)量將達(dá)到1.028億桶的新高，其中非歐佩克+國(guó)家將貢獻(xiàn)全部增長(zhǎng)。

報(bào)告稱，自去年11月首次實(shí)施減產(chǎn)以來(lái)，沙特阿拉伯和歐佩克+核心成員國(guó)的減產(chǎn)被其他產(chǎn)油國(guó)的增產(chǎn)所抵消。來(lái)自美國(guó)的石油日供應(yīng)量增加了61萬(wàn)桶，其中液化天然氣產(chǎn)量跳升至歷史新高，而生物燃料則出現(xiàn)季節(jié)性增加。然而，IEA預(yù)測(cè)，隨著沙特阿拉伯實(shí)施更大幅度的減產(chǎn)，7月份全球石油日供應(yīng)量可能減少100多萬(wàn)桶。

觀察到的全球石油庫(kù)存在5月份增加1940萬(wàn)桶，達(dá)到2021年9月以來(lái)的最高水平，因?yàn)閬喼扌枨蠹ぴ鰧?dǎo)致非經(jīng)濟(jì)合作與發(fā)展組織(OECD)成員國(guó)的石油庫(kù)存增加了4420萬(wàn)桶。經(jīng)合組織5月份的工業(yè)庫(kù)存每天增加17萬(wàn)桶。

在4月份的OMR中，IEA預(yù)測(cè)今年世界石油日需求將增加200萬(wàn)桶，達(dá)到1.019億桶。4月份的OMR指出，受亞洲大國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇的提振，非經(jīng)合組織國(guó)家將占到增量的90%。

今年IEA將第一季度的全球石油日需求預(yù)測(cè)大幅上調(diào)50萬(wàn)桶，并將今年全年的需求預(yù)測(cè)上調(diào)近一半。因此，今年全球石油日消費(fèi)量將增加200萬(wàn)桶，達(dá)到日均1.019億桶。

與此同時(shí)，根據(jù)IEA的另一份報(bào)告，根據(jù)對(duì)大中型石油、天然氣和煤炭公司宣布的支出計(jì)劃的分析，今年化石燃料供應(yīng)投資將增加6%以上，達(dá)到9500億美元左右。

然而，IEA表示，2026年以后，運(yùn)輸燃料的石油使用量將下降，石油需求的增長(zhǎng)將“在未來(lái)幾年放緩至幾乎停滯”。

李峻 譯自 鉆井地帶 網(wǎng)站

原文如下：

Global Oil Demand to Reach Record High in 2023: IEA

Global oil demand will increase by 2.2 million barrels per day (MMbpd) to reach a record high of 102.1 MMbpd in 2023, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its latest oil market report (OMR).

The IEA projects growth to slow to 1.1 MMbpd in 2024. “World oil demand is coming under pressure from the challenging economic environment, not least because of the dramatic tightening of monetary policy in many advanced and developing countries over the past twelve months”, the IEA said.

The IEA forecast global oil production to rise by 1.6 MMbpd to 101.5 MMbpd, as output from non-OPEC+ nations is expected to increase by 1.9 MMbpd. In 2024, the agency sees global oil supply rising by 1.2 MMbpd to a new record of 102.8 MMbpd, with non-OPEC+ nations accounting for all of the increase.

Lower output from Saudi Arabia and core OPEC+ members, since production cuts were first implemented last November, has been offset by higher output from other producers, according to the report. Supply from the USA rose by 610,000 bpd with natural gas liquids jumping to all-time highs while biofuels increased seasonally. However, the IEA predicts that global supply could fall by more than 1.0 MMbpd this month as Saudi Arabia implements steeper cuts.

Observed global oil inventories rose by 19.4 million barrels in May to the highest level since September 2021, as a surge in the biggest coutry in Asia led to a 44.2 million barrel build in nations not part of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). OECD industry stocks rose by 170,000 bpd in May, while the biggest coutry in Asia posted its largest monthly increase in crude stocks in a year at 1.1 MMbpd. 

In its April OMR, the IEA projected that world oil demand will climb by two million barrels per day in 2023 to “a record 101.9 million barrels per day”. Non-OECD countries, buoyed by a resurgence of the biggest country in Asia, will account for 90 percent of growth, the April OMR noted.

In May, the IEA raised global demand estimates by a hefty 500,000 barrels a day for the first quarter, and by just under half as much for the year as a whole. As a result, world consumption would climb by 2.0 million barrels a day this year to average 101.9 million a day, it had predicted.

Meanwhile, according to a separate report by the IEA, fossil fuel supply investments are set to rise by more than six percent to around $950 billion for 2023, based on an analysis of the announced spending plans of large- and medium-sized oil, gas, and coal companies.

However, the use of oil for transport fuels will decline after 2026, and growth in oil demand will “slow almost to a halt in the coming years”, the IEA said