油價(jià)網(wǎng)7月14日?qǐng)?bào)道，據(jù)能源轉(zhuǎn)型非營(yíng)利組織洛基山研究所（Rocky Mountain Institute，簡(jiǎn)稱RMI）與貝索斯地球基金（Bezos Earth Fund）合作的最新分析顯示，到2030年，風(fēng)能和太陽(yáng)能發(fā)電量將繼續(xù)飆升，占據(jù)全球電力的比例將從目前的12%增至超過(guò)三分之一。

預(yù)計(jì)風(fēng)能和太陽(yáng)能的進(jìn)一步增長(zhǎng)將使全球電力系統(tǒng)走上IEA預(yù)想的宏大零排放路線。根據(jù)該研究，可再生能源的激增將使太陽(yáng)能和風(fēng)能在2030年的發(fā)電量達(dá)到12000太瓦時(shí)至14000太瓦時(shí)，比2022年水平高出3至4倍，也將超過(guò)COP28氣候峰會(huì)前提出的到2030年全球可再生能源容量增至三倍的呼吁。

過(guò)去十年中，風(fēng)能和太陽(yáng)能所取得的成本下降預(yù)計(jì)將持續(xù)，到2030年，太陽(yáng)能和風(fēng)能的價(jià)格預(yù)計(jì)將再次下降50%。RMI的分析預(yù)測(cè)，太陽(yáng)能價(jià)格到2030年將再次降至每兆瓦小時(shí)20美元左右，相比目前每兆瓦小時(shí)40美元以上的價(jià)格減少一半。

上個(gè)月，IEA在一份報(bào)告中指出，歐洲的能源危機(jī)、美國(guó)的通貨膨脹削減法案以及亞洲綠色能源裝機(jī)的持續(xù)強(qiáng)勁擴(kuò)張，都將為今年可再生能源容量增加帶來(lái)有史以來(lái)最大增幅。

全球可再生能源裝機(jī)的新增容量預(yù)計(jì)將在今年激增至440吉瓦，同比增加107吉瓦，創(chuàng)下有史以來(lái)新裝機(jī)容量增加最大值，其中光伏發(fā)電裝機(jī)的新增量將占到可再生能源容量增長(zhǎng)的三分之二。

胡耀東 譯自 油價(jià)網(wǎng)

原文如下：

Wind And Solar To Generate 33% Of Global Power By 2030

Wind and solar power generation will continue surging to the point of accounting for more than one-third of global electricity by 2030, up from 12% now, according to a new analysis by the Rocky Mountain Institute (RMI), a nonprofit organization focused on the energy transition.

The expected further surge in wind and solar puts the global power system on track for the IEA’s ambitious net-zero pathway, RMI said in the research done in partnership with the Bezos Earth Fund. 

based on the forecasts, the surge in renewables would see solar and wind generate 12,000-14,000 terawatt-hours (TWh) by 2030. This would be 3 to 4 times higher compared with 2022 levels, and would also exceed recent calls ahead of the COP28 climate summit for a tripling of global renewable energy capacity by 2030, RMI said. 

The cost declines wind and solar have achieved over the past 10 years are expected to continue with solar and wind roughly halving in price again by 2030. RMI’s analysis forecasts that solar prices will roughly halve again by 2030, falling to as low as $20 per megawatt-hour (MWh) for solar, compared to over $40 per MWh now.

Last month, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in a report that the energy crisis in Europe, the Inflation Reduction Act in the United States, and the continued strong expansion of green energy installations in Asia are all expected to contribute to the biggest-ever increase in renewable energy capacity additions this year.

Globally, new installations of renewable energy capacity are expected to surge to 440 gigawatts (GW) this year, up by 107 GW year-on-year and the largest increase in new capacity ever seen, the IEA said in its report. Solar photovoltaic (PV) additions are set to account for two-thirds of the increase in renewable power capacity this year.