歐洲和美國(guó)的過剩天然氣庫存令天然氣價(jià)格持續(xù)低迷

歐洲對(duì)美國(guó)液化天然氣（LNG）的采購量減少，6月份的進(jìn)口量為415萬噸，較5月份的563萬噸有所下降

亞洲填補(bǔ)了歐洲留下的空缺，預(yù)計(jì)將購買更多的美國(guó)LNG

因庫存增加速度創(chuàng)新高，天然氣市場(chǎng)仍保持看跌情緒

據(jù)油價(jià)網(wǎng)7月19日?qǐng)?bào)道，幾周前國(guó)際能源署（IEA）警告稱，天然氣價(jià)格可能在今年冬季再次飆升，迫使政府再次補(bǔ)貼能源費(fèi)用。

但并非每個(gè)人都準(zhǔn)備接受這種看漲的觀點(diǎn)，渣打銀行的商品分析師認(rèn)為天然氣價(jià)格風(fēng)險(xiǎn)仍偏向下行。

渣打指出，盡管當(dāng)前歐洲正面臨熱浪和增加的用電需求來降溫，但天然氣庫存繼續(xù)快速增長(zhǎng)。根據(jù)歐洲天然氣基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施（GIE）的數(shù)據(jù)，到7月16日，歐盟天然氣庫存為945.2億立方米，較去年同期增加了217.3億立方米，高于五年平均水平184.6億立方米。

歐盟在冬季前填滿其天然氣儲(chǔ)備的購買熱情，迄今尚未出現(xiàn)。而6月份歐洲進(jìn)口了950萬噸天然氣，較5月份的1211萬噸有所下降，也是自2022年8月以來的最低月度總量。受到有史以來最嚴(yán)重能源危機(jī)的沖擊，歐盟于2022年成立了天然氣買家聯(lián)盟，并開始發(fā)布供應(yīng)招標(biāo)。歐盟有約50家天然氣供應(yīng)商和大型工業(yè)天然氣消費(fèi)者立即表達(dá)了參與該聯(lián)盟聯(lián)合購買天然氣的興趣。整個(gè)計(jì)劃的一個(gè)主要目標(biāo)是通過大批量購買來保持天然氣價(jià)格低廉。

歐洲的天然氣買家俱樂部取得了顯著的成功，該地區(qū)的天然氣儲(chǔ)備幾乎填滿了80％。不幸的是，歐洲對(duì)美國(guó)LNG的采購也減少了，6月份的進(jìn)口量為415萬噸，較5月份的563萬噸有所下降。

與此同時(shí)，美國(guó)的天然氣庫存也在持續(xù)增長(zhǎng)，到2023年7月14日的一周內(nèi)，庫存增加了49億立方英尺，達(dá)到2930億立方英尺。

歐洲和美國(guó)過剩的天然氣庫存仍然是壓制天然氣價(jià)格的最大看跌因素，除非出現(xiàn)非同尋常的黑天鵝事件，否則這種局面將難以扭轉(zhuǎn)。問題在于不僅天然氣庫存在增加，而且增速極快。

渣打銀行指出，為了使庫存在注入季節(jié)結(jié)束時(shí)達(dá)到歷史高位，從當(dāng)前時(shí)點(diǎn)開始，庫存增加值需超過五年平均水平的40.6%以上。然而，大宗商品專家表示，庫存的增長(zhǎng)速度遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)超過了這個(gè)關(guān)鍵水平，過去一周的平均增幅為每天3.3億立方米，幾乎比同期間五年平均水平高出100%。如果維持目前的天然氣注入速度，庫存將在注入季節(jié)結(jié)束時(shí)超過1200億立方米，比歷史高位高出10億立方米以上。

大量的天然氣涌入市場(chǎng)使得近期期貨價(jià)格承受巨大壓力，2023年10月交付的期貨價(jià)格現(xiàn)在比2024年4月交付的價(jià)格低近12歐元/兆瓦時(shí)。相比之下，今年年初的期貨價(jià)格還溢價(jià)超過5歐元，而一年前則溢價(jià)38歐元。

亞洲成為美國(guó)的主要客戶

不過，對(duì)于美國(guó)天然氣生產(chǎn)商來說并非全都是末日與沮喪，因?yàn)閬喼拚趶浹a(bǔ)歐洲留下的空缺。

亞洲對(duì)美國(guó)液化天然氣（LNG）的進(jìn)口量在6月份達(dá)到134萬噸，較5月份的121萬噸有所增加，是自今年2月以來最高。實(shí)際上，亞洲現(xiàn)在是美國(guó)最大的LNG客戶，而去年歐洲則是美國(guó)LNG產(chǎn)量的65%的購買者。

目前，薩賓帕斯終端有6個(gè)全時(shí)段運(yùn)營(yíng)的液化生產(chǎn)線，每條生產(chǎn)線能夠生產(chǎn)約500萬噸的LNG，銘牌產(chǎn)能約為每年約3000萬噸。美國(guó)天然氣生產(chǎn)商切尼爾公司每天將超過47億立方英尺的天然氣加工成LNG。薩賓帕斯終端有多條管道連接到州際和州內(nèi)管道，并且距離墨西哥灣不到4海里，因此便于海上船只進(jìn)出。

此前，切尼爾還與挪威國(guó)家石油公司Equinor ASA簽署了另一項(xiàng)長(zhǎng)期液化天然氣銷售協(xié)議，根據(jù)協(xié)議，Equinor將購買每年約175萬噸的LNG，購買價(jià)格以亨利樞紐價(jià)格為基準(zhǔn)，為期15年。

徐曼琳 譯自 油價(jià)網(wǎng)

原文如下：

Gas Markets Remain Bearish As Inventories Rise At A Record Clip

Excess gas inventories in Europe and the U.S. keep natural gas prices down.

Europe’s purchases of U.S. LNG have dwindled, with June’s volumes clocking in at 4.15 million metric tons, down from 5.63 million tons in May.

Asia picking up the slack left by Europe and are expected to buy more U.S. LNG.

Gas Markets Remain Bearish As Inventories Rise At A Record Clip

A couple of weeks ago, the International Energy Agency (IEA) warned that natural gas prices may spike again this winter, forcing governments to subsidize bills, again. The IEA’s executive director said: “In a scenario where the Chinese economy is very strong, buys a lot of energy from the markets and we have a harsh winter, we may see strong upward pressure under natural gas prices, which in turn will put an extra burden on consumers.” IEA executive director Fatih Birol told BBC Radio.

But not everybody is ready to buy into that bullish thesis, with commodity analysts at Standard Chartered arguing that natural gas price risk remains skewed to the downside.

StanChart notes that gas inventories continue rising at a rapid clip despite the current European heatwave and increased electricity demand for cooling. According to Gas Infrastructure, Europe (GIE) data, EU gas inventories stood at 94.52 billion cubic meters (bcm) on 16 July, a good 21.73bcm higher y/y and 18.46 bcm above the five-year average.

The much-awaited buying frenzy by the EU as it looks to fill its gas stores ahead of winter has yet to materialize. Europe imported 9.50 million metric tons in June, down from 12.11 million in May and the lowest monthly total since August 2022. Rocked by one of the worst energy crises in living memory, the European Union launched a gas buyers’ cartel in 2022 and started issuing tenders for supplies. According to Sefcovic, some 50 gas suppliers and large industrial gas consumers in the EU immediately expressed interest in being part of the bloc’s joint gas-buying effort. A key objective of the whole endeavor is to keep gas prices low by buying in larger volumes.

Well, Europe’s gas buyer’s club has been a resounding success, with the continent’s gas stores nearly 80% full. Unfortunately, Europe’s purchases of U.S. LNG have also dwindled, with June’s volumes clocking in at 4.15 million metric tons, down from 5.63 million tons in May.

Meanwhile, U.S. gas inventories have also been ticking higher, with stocks for the week ended July 14, 2023, up 49 Bcf to 2,930 Bcf.

Excess gas inventories in Europe and the U.S. remain the biggest bearish catalyst that’s capping gas prices, and it will take an extraordinarily black swan event for the situation to turn around. The big problem here is that not only are gas inventories rising but are doing so at a torrid clip.

StanChart notes that for inventories to finish the injection season at an all-time high, they would need to increase by more than 40.6% of the five-year average build from this point. However, the commodity experts say that inventories are building up at a far faster pace than that critical level, with the average build over the past week of 330 million cubic meters per day (mcm/d) nearly 100% higher than the five-year average over the equivalent period. If the current rate of gas injection is maintained, inventories will finish the injection season at just above 120 bcm, more than 10 bcm above the record-high.

The deluge of gas has put nearby futures prices under immense pressure, with futures for gas delivered in October 2023 now trading at a discount of almost 12 euros per megawatt-hour to prices for April 2024. In contrast, they traded at a premium of more than 5 euros at the beginning of the year and a full 38 euros a year ago.

Asia Become Key U.S. Customers

But it’s not all doom and gloom for U.S. gas producers, with Asia picking up the slack left by Europe.

Asia's imports of U.S. LNG climbed to 1.34 million metric tons in June, up from 1.21 million in May, the most since February. Indeed, Asia are now the U.S. biggest LNG customers, a position Europe held last year when it purchased as much as 65% of U.S. output.

Currently, Sabine Pass has six fully operational liquefaction units ?trains,?each capable of producing~5 mtpa of LNG for an aggregate nominal production capacity of 30 mtpa. Cheniere processes more than 4.7 billion cubic feet per day of natural gas into LNG. Sabine Pass has multiple pipeline connections to interstate and intrastate pipelines, and is located less than four nautical miles from the Gulf of Mexico thus providing easy access to seafaring vessels.

Previously, Cheniere entered another long-term liquefied natural gas sale and purchase agreement with Norway’s national oil company Equinor ASA (NYSE:EQNR) that will see Equinor purchase 1.75M metric tons/year of LNG on a free-on-board basis for a purchase price indexed to the Henry Hub price, for a 15-year term.