沙特阿拉伯原油的亞洲買家預(yù)計，9月份阿拉伯輕質(zhì)原油的官方售價將每桶上漲0.45美元，比迪拜/阿曼基準(zhǔn)原油價格每桶高出3.65美元

沙特阿拉伯自愿減產(chǎn)，再加上安哥拉、尼日利亞等面臨的原油生產(chǎn)問題，導(dǎo)致市場趨緊

一些分析人士認(rèn)為，由于煉油商競相獲取原油，沙特阿拉伯或?qū)⒃?月份開始取消每天100萬桶原油的減產(chǎn)

據(jù)油價網(wǎng)2023年8月1日報道，接受路透社調(diào)查的煉油行業(yè)消息人士稱，沙特阿拉伯可能連續(xù)第三個月提高其9月份的原油價格。

根據(jù)這些消息來源，沙特阿拉伯原油的亞洲買家可能會看到9月份每桶阿拉伯輕質(zhì)原油的價格比8月份上漲0.45美元，比迪拜/阿曼基準(zhǔn)原油價格每桶高出3.65美元，這是今年年初以來的最高水平。

一位路透社消息人士稱：“一直很難預(yù)測沙特阿拉伯的原油產(chǎn)量。但每天自愿額外削減100萬桶原油產(chǎn)量的延期被視為9月價格評估的基準(zhǔn)。”

沙特阿拉伯7月份開始的自愿減產(chǎn)已經(jīng)在擠壓歐佩克的原油供應(yīng)。路透社的另一項調(diào)查顯示，再加上安哥拉、尼日利亞等面臨的原油產(chǎn)量問題，這些減產(chǎn)導(dǎo)致歐佩克組織內(nèi)7月份原油日產(chǎn)量減少84萬桶。

至于未來走勢，分析師們的看法存在分歧。一些人，如煉油行業(yè)的匿名消息人士認(rèn)為沙特阿拉伯將從8月份開始推遲減產(chǎn)。其他一些人，比如7月份接受彭博社調(diào)查的一個團(tuán)體，認(rèn)為沙特阿拉伯或?qū)⒏鶕?jù)市場走勢相機(jī)行事。

咨詢公司FGE短期全球石油服務(wù)主管詹姆斯·戴維斯對彭博社表示：“有充分的證據(jù)表明沙特阿拉伯將在9月份開始取消減產(chǎn)。市場迫切需要這些原油，煉油商正在爭相獲得這些原油。”

調(diào)查中的受訪者預(yù)測，沙特阿拉伯9月份可能會將每天減產(chǎn)幅度縮減25萬至50萬桶。

路透社在其報道中指出，沙特阿拉伯的旗艦混合油阿拉伯輕質(zhì)原油最近一直處于現(xiàn)貨溢價狀態(tài)，表明由于自愿減產(chǎn)，市場需求超過了可用供應(yīng)。

重質(zhì)等級原油的供應(yīng)也受到限制，導(dǎo)致分析師預(yù)計這些等級原油的價格也會上漲。由于供應(yīng)充足，沙特阿拉伯唯一可能不會漲價的原油是阿拉伯超輕質(zhì)原油。

李峻 譯自 油價網(wǎng)

原文如下：

Oil Buyers Brace For Saudi Arabia To Boost Prices once Again

·     Asian buyers of Saudi crude oil expect September prices from Arab Light to rise by $0.45 per barrel to reach a $3.65 premium over the Dubai/Oman benchmarks.

·     Saudi Arabia’s voluntary production cut combined with production problems in Angola, Nigeria, and Libya is tightening markets.

·     Some analysts believe Saudi Arabia will start to unwind its 1 million bpd production cuts in September as refiners race to secure barrels.

Saudi Arabia may raise the price of its crude for the third month in a row for September cargos, according to sources from the refining industry surveyed by Reuters.

Per those sources, Asian buyers of Saudi crude could see September prices for Arab Light rise by $0.45 per barrel from August’s level, reaching a $3.65 premium over the Dubai/Oman benchmarks—the highest since the start of the year.

"It's always hard to make prediction on Saudi's OSPs. But the rollover of the 1 million bpd cut is seen as a baseline in September price assessments," one of the Reuters sources said.

The voluntary production cuts that Saudi Arabia began in July are already squeezing supply of oil from OPEC. Combined with production problems in Angola, Nigeria,the cuts contributed to an 840,000-bpd decline in OPEC’s total for July, according to another Reuters survey.

As for going forward, opinions among analysts diverge. Some, like the unnamed source from the refining industry, believe Saudi Arabia will roll the cuts over from August. Others, such as a group surveyed by Bloomberg last month, believe the Saudis may start rolling these back.

“There’s ample evidence for Saudi Arabia to start unwinding the cuts in September. The market is screaming out for these barrels, and refiners are scrambling to get hold of them,” James Davis, director of short-term global oil services at FGE, told Bloomberg.

The respondents in the survey forecast Riyadh could reduce the cuts by between 250,000 and 500,000 barrels daily in September.

Arab Light, the flagship Saudi oil blend, has been trading in a backwardation recently, Reuters noted in its report, suggesting that demand was exceeding available supply, thanks to the voluntary cuts.

The supply of heavier grades has also been constrained leading analysts to expect price hikes in those, too. The only Saudi crude that may see no change in prices is Arab Extra Light due to ample supply.