據(jù)OE網(wǎng)站7月31日報道，高盛(Goldman Sachs)周日上調(diào)了今年全球石油需求預(yù)測，同時維持布倫特原油價格12個月預(yù)估在每桶93美元，因?qū)嶋H庫存增加抵消了增長前景不那么悲觀帶來的需求提振。

高盛分析師估計，7月份全球石油需求攀升至1.028億桶/日的歷史新高，并預(yù)計強(qiáng)勁的需求將導(dǎo)致今年下半年出現(xiàn)180萬桶/日的缺口，超過預(yù)期，2024年將出現(xiàn)60萬桶/日的缺口。

分析師在一份報告中寫道，衰退風(fēng)險降低，以及石油輸出國組織(OPEC)大力推高油價，支持了高盛對油價走高和波動性降低前景的看法。

油價周一徘徊在三個月高點附近，預(yù)計將錄得一年多來最大單月漲幅，因市場預(yù)期沙特阿拉伯將把自愿減產(chǎn)延長至9月，并收緊全球供應(yīng)。

高盛分析師表示，沙特的減產(chǎn)令缺口再度出現(xiàn)，并補(bǔ)充稱，他們預(yù)計沙特每日額外減產(chǎn)100萬桶將持續(xù)到9月，10月將減產(chǎn)一半。

這家華爾街銀行將其石油需求預(yù)測上調(diào)了約55萬桶/日，并預(yù)計2023年的供應(yīng)量將增加約17.5萬桶/日。

該行維持對2023年12月布倫特原油價格每桶86美元的預(yù)測，其預(yù)計明年第二季度油價將升至每桶93美元，因為供應(yīng)短缺仍在繼續(xù)。

該行表示，然而，過去一年歐佩克閑置產(chǎn)能的大幅增加、國際海上項目的恢復(fù)增長以及美國石油生產(chǎn)成本的下降限制了油價的上行空間。

到格林尼治標(biāo)準(zhǔn)時間3時53分，布倫特原油期貨LCOc1交易價格為每桶84美元左右，美國西得克薩斯中質(zhì)原油CLc1交易價格為每桶80美元左右。

郝芬 譯自 OE

原文如下：

Goldman Upgrades Oil Demand Outlook as Market Tempers Growth Pessimism

Goldman Sachs on Sunday revised up its global oil demand forecast for the year while sticking to its 12-month Brent price projection of $93 per barrel as higher realized inventories offset the demand boost from a less pessimistic growth outlook.

Goldman analysts estimate global oil demand climbed to an all-time high of 102.8 million barrels per day (bpd) in July and see solid demand driving a larger-than-expected 1.8 million bpd deficit in the second half this year and a 0.6 million bpd deficit in 2024.

A reduced recession risk and a strong effort by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to push up prices support Goldman's view on higher oil prices and an outlook for less volatility, the analysts wrote in a note. 

Oil prices hovered near three-month highs on Monday, set to post their biggest monthly gains in over a year on expectations that Saudi Arabia would extend voluntary output cuts into September and tighten global supply. 

Saudi supply cuts have brought back deficits, the Goldman analysts said, adding that they see the extra 1 million bpd Saudi cut to last through September and be halved from October. 

The Wall Street bank upgraded its oil demand estimate by around 550,000 bpd and sees 2023 supply higher by around 175,000 bpd.

The bank maintained its $86 a barrel Brent forecast for December 2023, and it expects prices to rise to $93 per barrel in the second quarter next year as supply deficits continue. 

"However, the significant rise in OPEC spare capacity over the past year, the return to growth in international offshore projects, and declining U.S. oil production costs limit the upside to prices," it said. 

Brent futures LCOc1 were trading around $84 a barrel by 0353 GMT, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) U.S. crude CLc1 was around $80.