據(jù)油價(jià)網(wǎng)2023年8月23日?qǐng)?bào)道，5位華爾街分析師預(yù)測(cè)，由于供應(yīng)的不確定性，沙特阿拉伯可能會(huì)連續(xù)第3個(gè)月將其100萬桶/天的自愿減產(chǎn)協(xié)議延長(zhǎng)到10月份。最初的減產(chǎn)措施似乎奏效了，油價(jià)在過去一個(gè)月上漲了約15%，達(dá)到每桶86美元左右。

然而，隨著庫(kù)存收緊，油價(jià)逐漸上漲的趨勢(shì)在過去一周發(fā)生逆轉(zhuǎn)，交易商們?cè)俅螕?dān)心疲弱經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)，以及即將舉行的杰克森霍爾研討會(huì)（Jackson Hole symposium：全球央行會(huì)議，因自1978年起每年8月下旬在懷俄明州度假小鎮(zhèn)Jackson Hole舉行的全球央行會(huì)議而得名）。目前布倫特原油價(jià)格為每桶82.71美元，對(duì)沙特阿拉伯來說這個(gè)油價(jià)太低了，因?yàn)樯程匕⒗枰客?00美元的油價(jià)來平衡其賬目，這又給了沙特阿拉伯保持供應(yīng)緊張的另一個(gè)動(dòng)力。

咨詢公司Energy Aspects的分析師Richard Bronze告訴路透社：“我們認(rèn)為沙特阿拉伯至少會(huì)將減產(chǎn)協(xié)議全面延長(zhǎng)到10月份。在今年上半年石油市場(chǎng)疲軟之后，沙特阿拉伯正在采取謹(jǐn)慎的態(tài)度，希望在開始取消額外的自愿減產(chǎn)之前，看到全球庫(kù)存大幅下降。”

與此同時(shí)，經(jīng)紀(jì)商PVM Oil的約翰·埃文斯和盛寶銀行的奧利·漢森都預(yù)測(cè)，伊拉克庫(kù)爾德地區(qū)可能恢復(fù)石油生產(chǎn)，這可能會(huì)促使沙特阿拉伯暫時(shí)停止向市場(chǎng)供應(yīng)更多石油。

盡管如此，全球石油市場(chǎng)預(yù)計(jì)將逐漸收緊，隨著時(shí)間的推移，這應(yīng)該會(huì)提振油價(jià)。總部位于巴黎的國(guó)際能源署(IEA)預(yù)測(cè)，今年下半年全球石油短缺將達(dá)到每天170萬桶左右。

渣打銀行的大宗商品專家預(yù)測(cè)，8月份全球石油市場(chǎng)將出現(xiàn)每天281萬桶的供應(yīng)缺口；9月份為243萬桶/天，11月和12月超過200萬桶/天。分析師還預(yù)測(cè)，到今年年底前，全球石油庫(kù)存將減少3.1億桶，2024年第一季度將再減少9400萬桶，從而推高油價(jià)。據(jù)專家預(yù)測(cè)，布倫特原油價(jià)格將在今年第四季度攀升至每桶93美元。

李峻 譯自 油價(jià)網(wǎng)

原文如下：

Saudi Arabia Likely To Extend Production Cuts To October

Saudi Arabia is likely to extend its voluntary 1 million-barrel oil supply cut for the third consecutive month into October amid uncertainty about supply, five Wall Street analysts have predicted. The initial cuts appear to have worked, with oil prices climbing about 15% in the past month to about $86 a barrel. 

However, the gradual rise in oil prices as inventory tightened has reversed over the past week with traders worrying again about weak economic data coming from China as well as the upcoming Jackson Hole symposium. Current Brent prices of $82.71 is too low for Saudi Arabia since it needs $100-a-barrel crude to balance its books, giving it another incentive to keep supplies tight.

"We think Saudi Arabia will extend the cut in full at least through October. The kingdom is adopting a cautious approach after the weakness in oil markets over the first half of the year and will want to see global inventories significantly decline before starting to unwind the additional voluntary cuts," Richard Bronze, analyst at consultancy Energy Aspects, has told Reuters.

Meanwhile, brokerage PVM Oil's John Evans and Saxo Bank's Ole Hansen, have both predicted that a possible resumption of oil production from Iraq's Kurdistan region may prompt the Saudis to withhold additional supplies to the market for now.

Nevertheless, oil markets are expected to gradually tighten, which should boost prices as the months roll on. The International Energy Agency(IEA) in Paris has predicted an oil shortage of about 1.7 million barrels a day during the second half of the year. 

Commodity experts at Standard Chartered have predicted that global oil markets will register a supply deficit of 2.81 million barrels per day in August; 2.43mb/d in September and more than 2mb/d in November and December. The analysts have also projected that global inventories will fall by 310mb by end-2023 and another 94mb in the first quarter of 2024 thus pushing oil prices higher. According to the experts, Brent prices will climb to $93/bbl in the fourth quarter.