???? 據(jù)3月17日MENAFN消息：國際能源署(IEA)表示，除非各國政府迅速采取行動(dòng)，實(shí)現(xiàn)氣候目標(biāo)，否則全球石油需求將在兩年內(nèi)恢復(fù)到大流行前的水平，并在2026年達(dá)到創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄高位。
????IEA在一份年度報(bào)告中稱，石油市場和世界經(jīng)濟(jì)正在從冠狀病毒大流行造成的大規(guī)模需求崩潰中復(fù)蘇。
????該報(bào)告稱，隨著人們接種疫苗和限制解除，到2023年，需求將恢復(fù)到2019年的水平。
????IEA的五年預(yù)測估計(jì)，到2026年，全球需求將每年增長，達(dá)到1.04億桶/天，較2019年增長4%。
????然而，隨著疫情迫使人們改變行為方式，家工作和旅行減少，需求前景已有所下降。
????更多的政府也在關(guān)注潛在的“可持續(xù)復(fù)蘇”，以快速邁向低碳未來。報(bào)告稱，“如果各國政府堅(jiān)持強(qiáng)有力的政策，加快向清潔能源的轉(zhuǎn)變”，石油需求將比預(yù)期更快達(dá)到峰值。
????IEA執(zhí)行董事Fatih Birol表示:“實(shí)現(xiàn)有序的石油過渡對(duì)于實(shí)現(xiàn)氣候目標(biāo)至關(guān)重要，但這需要各國政府做出重大政策改變，并加速行為轉(zhuǎn)變。否則，從現(xiàn)在到2026年，全球石油需求每年都將增加。”
????“為了讓全球石油需求在短期內(nèi)達(dá)到峰值，需要立即采取重大行動(dòng)，提高燃油效率標(biāo)準(zhǔn)，促進(jìn)電動(dòng)汽車銷售，并抑制電力行業(yè)的石油使用。”
????根據(jù)該機(jī)構(gòu)的基本設(shè)想，亞洲預(yù)計(jì)將引領(lǐng)全球需求的新增長，并占2019年至2026年增長的90%。
????IEA表示:“相比之下，許多發(fā)達(dá)經(jīng)濟(jì)體的汽車保有量和人均石油使用量都要高得多，它們的需求預(yù)計(jì)不會(huì)恢復(fù)到危機(jī)前的水平。”
????如果燃油效率標(biāo)準(zhǔn)得到提高，電動(dòng)汽車銷量大增，電力行業(yè)使用更少的能源，人們更多地在家里工作，商務(wù)旅行沒有起色，情況可能會(huì)發(fā)生巨大變化。
????總的來說，到2026年，石油消費(fèi)量最多可減少560萬桶/天，這將意味著全球石油需求永遠(yuǎn)不會(huì)回到大流行前的水平。
????Birol表示:“沒有一家油氣公司不受清潔能源轉(zhuǎn)型的影響，因此，隨著全球推動(dòng)凈零排放的勢頭不斷增強(qiáng)，各行業(yè)都需要考慮如何應(yīng)對(duì)。”
????馮娟 摘譯自 MENAFN
????原文如下：
????Oil demand to reach record by 2026: IEA
????Global oil demand will return to pre-pandemic levels in two years and reach record heights by 2026 unless governments take swift action to meet climate goals, the International Energy Agency said Wednesday.
????Oil markets and the world economy are recovering from the massive collapse in demand caused by the coronavirus pandemic, the IEA said in an annual report.
????"The Covid-19 crisis caused a historic decline in global oil demand -a€' but not necessarily a lasting one," IEA executive director Fatih Birol said in a statement.
????As people get vaccinated and restrictions are lifted, demand will return to its 2019 level by 2023, according to the report.
????The IEA's five-year projections estimates global demand will rise each year to reach 104 million barrels a day (mb/d) by 2026, a gain of four percent from the level in 2019.
????The outlook for demand, however, has shifted lower as the pandemic has forced changes in behaviour, with people working from home and travelling less, the report said.
????More governments are also focusing on a potential "sustainable recovery" to move quickly towards a low-carbon future.
????This raises the prospect of reaching a peak in oil demand sooner than expected "if governments follow through with strong policies to hasten the shift to clean energy," according to the report.
????"Achieving an orderly transition away from oil is essential to meet climate goals, but it will require major policy changes from governments as well as accelerated behavioural changes," Birol said.
????"Without that, global oil demand is set to increase every year between now and 2026," he said.
????"For the world's oil demand to peak anytime soon, significant action is needed immediately to improve fuel efficiency standards, boost electric vehicle sales and curb oil use in the power sector."
????Asia is expected to lead renewed growth in global demand and account for 90 percent of the increase from 2019 to 2026, according to the agency's base scenario.
????"By contrast, demand in many advanced economies, where vehicle ownership and oil use per capita are much higher, is not expected to return to pre-crisis levels," the IEA said.
????If fuel efficiency standards are improved, electric vehicle sales take off, the power sector uses less energy, people recycle and work from home more and business travel fails to pick up, the picture could change dramatically.
????Taken together, it could reduce oil consumption by up to 5.6 mb/d by 2026, "which would mean that global oil demand never gets back to where it was before the pandemic."
????Birol said: "No oil and gas company will be unaffected by clean energy transitions, so every part of the industry needs to consider how to respond as momentum builds behind the world's drive for net-zero emissions."
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