據(jù)油價(jià)網(wǎng)5月16日消息，世界上幾個(gè)最大的產(chǎn)油國(guó)最近公布了提高產(chǎn)能的計(jì)劃。原因是:石油需求峰值即將到來，各國(guó)決心盡其所能充分利用其石油資源。

　　上月，在提交一份旨在實(shí)現(xiàn)這一目標(biāo)的文件草案時(shí)，俄羅斯國(guó)家杜馬能源委員會(huì)主席帕維爾·扎瓦爾尼表示:“應(yīng)該在仍有需求的情況下，生產(chǎn)一切能生產(chǎn)的產(chǎn)品。”

　　帕維爾·扎瓦爾尼還在會(huì)上表示:“這一戰(zhàn)略的主要論點(diǎn)是當(dāng)前儲(chǔ)備和資源的貨幣化——即最大限度地實(shí)現(xiàn)出口貨幣化。”

　　俄羅斯是世界三大石油出口國(guó)之一，與沙特阿拉伯和美國(guó)并列。它的石油儲(chǔ)量至少可以維持目前的產(chǎn)量到2080年，天然氣儲(chǔ)量也可以再維持103年。政府正投入數(shù)千億美元，準(zhǔn)確地說是1100億美元，用于東西伯利亞新石油儲(chǔ)量的開發(fā)，每年開采1億噸新原油。這大約是該國(guó)2019年年產(chǎn)量的五分之一。

　　這些石油中的大部分將取代西伯利亞西部日漸枯竭的油田。據(jù)俄羅斯能源部稱，俄羅斯似乎沒有大幅提高當(dāng)前產(chǎn)量的計(jì)劃。在疫情前的最后一年，日產(chǎn)量為1130萬桶/天，創(chuàng)歷史新高。現(xiàn)在，能源部預(yù)計(jì)，到2029年，目前受到限制的產(chǎn)量將從1030萬桶/天上升至1110萬桶/天，然后開始下降。換句話說，俄羅斯根據(jù)自己的情況，有8年的時(shí)間來利用全球石油需求的增長(zhǎng)。

　　然而，對(duì)石油需求見頂有各種各樣的設(shè)想。例如， BP公司預(yù)測(cè)，在最壞的情況下，石油需求峰值已經(jīng)到來，在最好的情況下，峰值將在2030年到來。挪威國(guó)家石油公司(Equinor)預(yù)計(jì)，石油需求峰值將在2027年或2028年出現(xiàn)。雷斯塔能源預(yù)計(jì)需求將在五年內(nèi)見頂，而國(guó)際能源署(IEA)預(yù)計(jì)需求將在未來十年見頂。總而言之，預(yù)測(cè)在2030年的范圍內(nèi)。

　　這意味著，在需求開始穩(wěn)步下降之前，俄羅斯、沙特阿拉伯、伊拉克和海灣國(guó)家等產(chǎn)油國(guó)幾乎沒有時(shí)間充分利用其石油儲(chǔ)備。隨著所有這些國(guó)家都在提高產(chǎn)能并制定增產(chǎn)計(jì)劃，石油市場(chǎng)上的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)肯定會(huì)比現(xiàn)在更加激烈。

　　在競(jìng)爭(zhēng)方面，俄羅斯比它的中東伙伴處于更好的位置。它對(duì)石油出口收入的依賴一直低于中東產(chǎn)油國(guó)。最近，俄羅斯一直在有意減少這種依賴。石油和天然氣收入仍占俄羅斯國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值的30%，但隨著氫等能源吸引了政府注意，俄羅斯的多元化進(jìn)程雖然緩慢，但卻是必然的。盡管如此，仍有數(shù)十億桶石油埋藏在地下，把它們留在那里將是一個(gè)遺憾，因此才有了提高產(chǎn)量的計(jì)劃。但是誰來買呢?

　　印度顯然是一個(gè)候選國(guó)家。這個(gè)國(guó)家消耗的石油有80%依靠進(jìn)口，因此它喜歡便宜的石油。在印度，俄羅斯將與它的歐佩克伙伴和美國(guó)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)，印度也是美國(guó)的主要石油出口目的地。隨著需求見頂越來越近，亞洲其它新興市場(chǎng)也將成為石油出口國(guó)的一個(gè)關(guān)鍵市場(chǎng)。

　　然后，根據(jù)需求預(yù)測(cè)，石油生產(chǎn)商似乎會(huì)在仍有買家的時(shí)候，爭(zhēng)先恐后地盡可能多地出售石油。但事實(shí)是，石油需求峰值可能確實(shí)會(huì)在10年或更短的時(shí)間內(nèi)出現(xiàn)，但這并不意味著需求會(huì)急劇下降——除非另一場(chǎng)疫情襲擊地球。如果沒有這種不可預(yù)見的事件，石油需求很可能會(huì)逐漸下降，給有遠(yuǎn)見的生產(chǎn)商足夠的時(shí)間通過提振非石油部門來進(jìn)行調(diào)整。從這個(gè)角度來看，俄羅斯有足夠的時(shí)間減少石油和天然氣收入占GDP的比重。它是否會(huì)明智地利用這段時(shí)間來實(shí)現(xiàn)這些目標(biāo)還有待觀察。

　　裘寅 編譯自 油價(jià)網(wǎng)

　　原文如下：

　　Russia Is Making A Mad Dash To Outrun Peak Oil Demand

　　Several of the world’s largest oil-producing nations have recently made public plans to boost their production capacity. The reason: peak oil demand is looming and countries are determined to make the most of their oil resources while they can.

　　“Everything that can be produced should be produced while there is still demand to sell it,” the head of the energy committee at the Duma, the Russian parliament, said last month at the presentation of a draft document aiming to do just that.

　　“The main thesis in this strategy is the monetization of current reserves and resources – that is, the maximum monetization of exports,” Pavel Zavalny also said at the event.

　　Russia is one of the three biggest oil exporters in the world, alongside Saudi Arabia and the United States. It has enough oil to keep producing at current rates at least until 2080, with enough gas reserves to last for another 103 years. And the state is pouring billions—$110 billion to be precise—into the development of new oil reserves in eastern Siberia to tap 100 million tons of new crude annually. That’s about a fifth of the country’s annual output in 2019.

　　Much of this oil will replace depleting fields in western Siberia. According to the Energy Ministry of the country, Russia does not seem to have plans to considerably boost current production rates. In the last pre-pandemic year, the daily production rate was 11.3 million bpd, a record high. Now, the Energy Ministry sees the current - constrained - production rate rising from 10.3 million bpd to 11.1 million bpd by 2029 before beginning to decline. In other words, Russia has eight years to take advantage of growing global oil demand as per its own scenario.

　　Yet, there are various scenarios for the peak of oil demand. BP, for instance, predicted that in the worst-case scenario peak oil demand has already arrived, and in the best-case scenario, it will come in 2030. Norway’s Equinor expects peak oil demand sometime in 2027 or 2028.

　　Rystad Energy sees demand peaking in five years, and the International Energy Agency expects peak demand over the next decade. All in all, forecasts are within the range of 2030.

　　This means producers such as Russia, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and the Gulf nations have very little time to make the most of their oil reserves before demand begins declining steadily. And with all of these countries boosting their production capacity and making plans for higher production, competition in the oil market is bound to become even more severe than it is now.

　　When it comes to competition, Russia is better positioned than its Middle Eastern partners. It has always been less dependent on oil export revenues than Middle Eastern producers.

　　Recently, it has been deliberately reducing this dependence. Oil and gas revenues still account for a solid 30 percent of gross domestic product, but with things like hydrogen catching the eye of the Kremlin, diversification is slowly but surely underway. Still, there are all those billions of barrels of oil sitting in the ground, and it would be a pity to keep them there, hence the plans to boost production. But who will be buying?

　　India is an obvious candidate. The country imports 80 percent of the oil it burns, and it likes it cheap because of that. In India, Russia will be competing with its OPEC partners and the United States, for whom India is also a top oil export destination. The rest of emerging Asia will also be a key market for oil exporters as peak demand draws nearer and nearer.

　　Oil producers are then in a rush to sell as much oil as they can while there are still buyers, it seems, based on demand forecasts. But the truth is that peak oil demand may indeed come in ten years or fewer, but it does not mean demand will then fall off a cliff—unless another pandemic hits the planet, that is. In the absence of such an unforeseen event, oil demand is likely to decline pretty gradually, giving forward-looking producers plenty of time to adjust by boosting their non-oil sectors. From this perspective, Russia has enough time to reduce oil and gas revenues as a portion of GDP. Whether it will use this time wisely to achieve those aims remains to be seen.

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