據(jù)今日油價(jià)網(wǎng)站1月10日消息，隨著主要汽車制造商汽車電氣化的拋物線式增長(zhǎng)增加了需求，鋰價(jià)格正創(chuàng)下歷史新高。

世界各地的礦業(yè)公司都在爭(zhēng)先恐后地增加產(chǎn)量，開(kāi)發(fā)世界上最輕金屬的新來(lái)源。

全球最大的電池生產(chǎn)國(guó)上周報(bào)告稱，碳酸鋰的基準(zhǔn)價(jià)格約為300000元（剛剛超過(guò)每噸47美元），比2021年1月增長(zhǎng)了約六倍。隨著特斯拉等電動(dòng)汽車制造商報(bào)告美國(guó)、歐洲和該國(guó)的汽車價(jià)格呈指數(shù)級(jí)增長(zhǎng)，汽車價(jià)格飆升。

鋰是電池技術(shù)中的基本元素之一，為穩(wěn)步取代內(nèi)燃機(jī)的電動(dòng)汽車提供動(dòng)力。隨著電動(dòng)汽車份額的增加，對(duì)鋰的需求將增加。因此，傳統(tǒng)觀點(diǎn)認(rèn)為，在電池行業(yè)開(kāi)發(fā)新的采礦項(xiàng)目以擴(kuò)大產(chǎn)量之前，鋰價(jià)格將保持高位。

據(jù)彭博社NEF統(tǒng)計(jì)，2021年度全球電動(dòng)汽車銷量約為560萬(wàn)輛，高于2020年的310萬(wàn)輛。銷售額的大幅增長(zhǎng)主要因全球最大電池生產(chǎn)國(guó)的需求飆升。2022年電動(dòng)汽車的進(jìn)一步銷售只會(huì)表明鋰的需求將超過(guò)產(chǎn)量并耗盡庫(kù)存，從而有助于保持價(jià)格居高不下。

伍德麥肯茲電池原材料研究主管加文·蒙哥馬利表示，鋰價(jià)格今年不會(huì)像往年那樣暴跌。

蒙哥馬利表示：“未來(lái)幾年，我們將進(jìn)入一個(gè)鋰定價(jià)的新時(shí)代，因?yàn)樵鲩L(zhǎng)將非常強(qiáng)勁。”

好消息是，在過(guò)去十年中，鋰離子電池組變得更加廉價(jià)。2010年，電池組每千瓦時(shí)為1200美元，但自那時(shí)以來(lái)已降至2021年的132美元。然而，今天不斷飆升的價(jià)格可能會(huì)在2022年將電池組增加到每千瓦時(shí)135美元。

因此，電池行業(yè)面臨的壓力是確保新的鋰供應(yīng)，以保持電池組價(jià)格低廉，同時(shí)讓電動(dòng)汽車變得更便宜，從而推進(jìn)綠色能源革命。

王磊 摘譯自 今日油價(jià)

原文如下：

Record High Lithium Prices Are Here To Stay

The price for lithium is hitting fresh record highs as the parabolic growth in the electrification of vehicles by major automakers increases demand.

Mining companies worldwide are scrambling to increase production and develop new sources of the world's lightest metal.

The largest battery-producing country, reported last week that the benchmark price of lithium carbonate was about 300,000 yuan (just over $47k per ton), an increase of about six times from January 2021. Soaring prices come as electric-car makers, such as Tesla, report exponential growth in the US, Europe, and this country. 

Lithium is one of the essential elements in battery technology powering electric vehicles that steadily replace combustion engines. As the share of electric cars increases, demand for lithium will increase; thus, conventional wisdom would suggest lithium prices will remain elevated until the battery industry develops new mining projects to expand output. 

According to Bloomberg NEF, global electric car sales were about 5.6 million in 2021, up from 3.1 million in 2020. The significant increase in sales is due to soaring the largest battery-producing country's demand (as shown in the chart above). Further electric car sales in 2022 will only suggest the demand for lithium will outstrip production and deplete stockpiles, helping to keep prices high. 

Gavin Montgomery, research director for battery raw materials at Wood Mackenzie, said lithium prices would not crash this year as they've done in previous years. 

"We're entering a sort of new era in terms of lithium pricing over the next few years because the growth will be so strong," Montgomery said.  

The good news is that lithium-ion battery packs have become more affordable over the last decade. In 2010, battery packs were $1,200 per kilowatt-hour but had since plummeted to $132 by 2021. However, today's soaring prices could increase battery packs to 135 per kilowatt-hour in 2022. 

So the pressure is on for the battery industry to secure new lithium supplies to keep battery pack prices low while allowing electric cars to become more affordable for widespread adoption of the green energy revolution.

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