據(jù)油氣新聞網(wǎng)9月27日?qǐng)?bào)道,受颶風(fēng)伊恩(Ian)到來(lái)前美國(guó)墨西哥灣的石油供應(yīng)限制和美元小幅走軟的支撐,油價(jià)從周一的9個(gè)月低點(diǎn)上漲逾1%。
分析師預(yù)計(jì),歐佩克+可能采取行動(dòng),通過(guò)削減供應(yīng)來(lái)遏制油價(jià)下跌,這也為油價(jià)上漲提供了支持。歐佩克+將于10月5日開(kāi)會(huì)制定政策。
截至格林尼治標(biāo)準(zhǔn)時(shí)間8時(shí)10分,布倫特原油上漲1.11美元,至每桶85.17美元,漲幅1.3%。周一跌至83.65美元,為今年1月以來(lái)的最低水平。美國(guó)西得克薩斯中質(zhì)原油(WTI)上漲1.08美元,至每桶77.79美元,漲幅1.4%。
2022年初原油價(jià)格飆升,3月份地緣政治沖突后,布倫特原油價(jià)格接近147美元的高點(diǎn),加劇了供應(yīng)擔(dān)憂。此后,對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退、高利率和美元走強(qiáng)的擔(dān)憂開(kāi)始加劇。
石油經(jīng)紀(jì)人PVM的塔馬斯·瓦爾加(Tamas Varga)表示,石油目前受到金融力量的影響。與此同時(shí),反彈行情被視為暫時(shí)現(xiàn)象,就像今天早上由颶風(fēng)伊恩在美國(guó)海灣造成的那樣。
美元稍早曾觸及20年高點(diǎn),對(duì)使用其他貨幣的買家來(lái)說(shuō),美元走強(qiáng)會(huì)使原油價(jià)格更加昂貴,并且往往會(huì)給風(fēng)險(xiǎn)資產(chǎn)帶來(lái)壓力。
周二,供應(yīng)削減再度成為關(guān)注焦點(diǎn),為市場(chǎng)提供了一些支撐。英國(guó)石油和雪佛龍周一表示,由于颶風(fēng)伊恩逼近該地區(qū),他們關(guān)閉了墨西哥灣海上平臺(tái)的生產(chǎn)。
油價(jià)下跌引發(fā)了有關(guān)歐佩克+可能進(jìn)行干預(yù)的猜測(cè)。伊拉克石油部長(zhǎng)周一說(shuō),該組織正在監(jiān)控油價(jià),不希望油價(jià)大幅上漲或暴跌。
瑞士銀行瑞銀(UBS)的喬瓦尼?斯陶諾沃(Giovanni Staunovo)和韋恩?戈登(Wayne Gordon)表示,只有歐佩克+的減產(chǎn),才能在短期內(nèi)打破這種負(fù)面勢(shì)頭。
周二的焦點(diǎn)還將是最新的美國(guó)庫(kù)存報(bào)告,分析師預(yù)計(jì)原油庫(kù)存將增加30萬(wàn)桶。美國(guó)石油協(xié)會(huì)的報(bào)告于格林威治標(biāo)準(zhǔn)時(shí)間20時(shí)30分發(fā)布。
郝芬 譯自 油氣新聞網(wǎng)
原文如下:
Oil rise from nine-month low on US gulf supply cuts
Oil rose more than 1 per cent from a nine-month low a day earlier, supported by supply curbs in the US Gulf of Mexico ahead of Hurricane Ian and a slight softening in the US dollar.
Analyst expectations that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, known as Opec+, may take action to stem the drop in prices by cutting supply also lent support. Opec+ meets to set policy on October 5.
Brent crude rose $1.11, or 1.3 per cent, to $85.17 a barrel by 0810 GMT. On Monday it fell as low as $83.65, the lowest since January. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was up $1.08, or 1.4 per cent, at $77.79.
Crude soared in early 2022, with Brent coming close to its all-time high of $147 in March after the war adding to supply concerns. Worries about recession, high interest rates and dollar strength have since weighed.
"Oil is currently under the influence of financial forces," said Tamas Varga of oil broker PVM. "In the meantime, relief rallies, like the one this morning caused by Hurricane Ian in the US Gulf, are viewed as temporary phenomena."
A lull in the strength of the US dollar, which earlier hit a 20-year high, provided some support. A strong dollar makes crude more expensive for buyer using other currencies and tends to weigh on risk assets.
Supply cuts were back in focus on Tuesday lending some support. BP and Chevron said on Monday they shut production at offshore platforms in the Gulf of Mexico as Hurricane Ian approached the region.
The price drop has raised speculation that Opec+ could intervene. Iraq's oil minister on Monday said the group was monitoring prices and didn't want a sharp increase or a collapse.
"only a production cut by Opec+ can break the negative momentum in the short run," said Giovanni Staunovo and Wayne Gordon of Swiss bank UBS.
In focus also on Tuesday will be the latest US inventory reports, which analysts expect will show a 300,000-barrel increase in crude stocks. The American Petroleum Institute's report is out at 2030 GMT.
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