據烴加工網3月22日報道,據行業分析師稱,隨著美國煉油商調整業務,以應對未來10年國內汽車燃料需求的下降,他們將尋求最大限度地提高柴油和生物燃料的產量以出口。
隨著全球柴油庫存下降和需求激增,全球煉油能力的合理化以及地緣政治沖突的繼續鼓勵美國煉油商優先考慮餾分油。
在去年的高峰期,美國煉油廠每天出口創紀錄的157萬桶蒸餾燃料,利潤率每桶超過70美元,是汽油的兩倍多。
Tudor,Pickering and Holt分析師表示,盡管餾分油利潤率已降至每桶31.35美元左右,但仍是5年平均水平的兩倍。
精煉燃料分析公司(Refined Fuels Analytics)董事總經理奧爾斯(John Auers)說,這些利潤將鼓勵全球下游企業投資生產柴油和其他高價值產品。
Auers在圣安東尼奧舉行的美國燃料和石化制造商年會上表示,未來面臨最大風險的將是那些生產更多汽油的煉油廠。
在21世紀的大部分時間里,由于發動機燃油效率的提高和電動汽車數量的增加,美國人均汽油需求一直在下降。
然而Auers預測,到2045年,中等餾分油的總需求將增加1080萬桶/天,增幅為32%,其中柴油將增加480萬桶,航空燃料將增加600萬桶。
運輸燃料產量的增長將集中在生物燃料上。馬拉松石油公司和菲利普斯66公司等煉油廠一直在對煉油廠進行改造,以生產可再生柴油和可持續航空燃料等生物燃料。
根據精煉燃料分析公司匯編的數據顯示,2022年,美國可再生柴油產量超過10萬桶/日,是2021產量的兩倍多。
Auers說,到2025年,美國將成為重要的生物燃料出口國,可能是世界上最大的可持續航空燃料和可再生柴油出口國。
郝芬 譯自 烴加工網
原文如下:
U.S. refiners shift focus to distillates amid energy transition
As U.S. refiners rejigger operations to reflect declining domestic motor fuels demand in the next decade, they will seek to maximize diesel and biofuels production for exports, industry analysts say.
A rationalization of global refining capacity along with the war has encouraged U.S. refiners to prioritize distillates as global diesel inventories sagged and demand jumped.
At its peak last year, U.S. refiners were exporting a record 1.57 million barrels per day of distillate fuel, with profit margins topping $70 a barrel, more than double that of gasoline.
While distillate margins have cooled to around $31.35 a barrel, according to analysts at Tudor, Pickering and Holt, they remain double the five-year average.
Those profits will encourage downstream companies globally to invest in producing diesel and other high-value products, said John Auers, managing director of Refined Fuels Analytics.
"The refineries that will be most at risk in the future will be those that are geared to produce more gasoline," Auers said in remarks at the American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers annual meeting in San Antonio.
Gasoline demand per capita has been declining in the United States for much of the 21st century, due to increased fuel efficiency of engines and rising share of electric vehicles.
In contrast, Auers forecasts that total middle distillates demand will increase by 10.8 million barrels per day (bpd), or 32%, by 2045, with diesel growing by 4.8 million barrels and jet fuel by 6 million barrels.
Transportation fuel production growth will be focused on biofuels. Oil refiners such as Marathon Petroleum and Phillips 66 have been retrofitting oil refineries to produce biofuels such as renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel.
U.S. production of renewable diesel topped 100,000 bpd in 2022, more than double 2021's production level, according to data compiled by Refined Fuel Analytics.
The U.S. will become an important biofuels exporter, likely the world’s largest, of sustainable aviation fuel and renewable diesel by 2025, Auers said.
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