挪威著名能源研究和商業(yè)情報(bào)公司Rystad：到2030年前，全球電池儲(chǔ)能裝機(jī)容量將超過(guò)400吉瓦時(shí)

政府政策在激勵(lì)投資和電池存儲(chǔ)容量擴(kuò)張方面發(fā)揮著重要作用

到2030年前，電池儲(chǔ)能市場(chǎng)年安裝量將達(dá)到110吉瓦，其中58%將在亞洲開(kāi)發(fā)

據(jù)油價(jià)網(wǎng)2023年6月14日?qǐng)?bào)道，電池儲(chǔ)能應(yīng)用的時(shí)代可能才剛剛開(kāi)始，但隨著儲(chǔ)能成為世界能源格局的關(guān)鍵，未來(lái)幾年每年的裝機(jī)容量增加將像滾雪球一樣。挪威著名能源研究和商業(yè)情報(bào)公司Rystad的模型預(yù)測(cè)，到2030年前，每年的電池儲(chǔ)能裝機(jī)容量將超過(guò)400吉瓦時(shí)，相當(dāng)于目前每年新增裝機(jī)容量的10倍。

電池儲(chǔ)能系統(tǒng)(BESS)是一種相互連接的電池配置，旨在存儲(chǔ)多余電能并將其釋放以滿(mǎn)足即將到來(lái)的需求。因此，BESS為解決電力間歇性問(wèn)題提供了切實(shí)可行的解決方案。隨著世界向太陽(yáng)能光伏和風(fēng)能等更環(huán)保發(fā)電方式過(guò)渡，電池儲(chǔ)能發(fā)展將成為滿(mǎn)足未來(lái)能源需求的關(guān)鍵。

去年，全球BESS裝機(jī)容量比前一年增加了60%，新安裝總量超過(guò)43吉瓦時(shí)。今年將再增加74吉瓦時(shí)，增幅達(dá)72%，這主要是由于BESS的成本降低、北美的激勵(lì)措施、歐洲的政府資助計(jì)劃，以及亞洲大陸可再生能源產(chǎn)能的強(qiáng)勁擴(kuò)張。

“假設(shè)目前的政策情景不變，我們預(yù)計(jì)到2030年前年安裝總量將超過(guò)400吉瓦時(shí)，注意吉瓦時(shí)（GWh）指的是能源單位，而吉瓦(GW)是電力單位。這意味著到2030年前新增裝機(jī)容量約為110吉瓦，幾乎相當(dāng)于法國(guó)和德國(guó)住宅用電量峰值的總和。這一預(yù)測(cè)總體上符合我們的氣候變化情景，符合1.9攝氏度的碳預(yù)算。”  

Rystad儲(chǔ)能分析師塞佩爾·索爾塔尼說(shuō)：“電池將在未來(lái)能源生產(chǎn)和電力需求中發(fā)揮基礎(chǔ)性作用，解決可再生能源發(fā)電的間歇性問(wèn)題。為了減少對(duì)煤炭和天然氣作為備用發(fā)電來(lái)源的依賴(lài)，各國(guó)現(xiàn)在必須投資BESS。”

政府政策在激勵(lì)投資和擴(kuò)大產(chǎn)能方面發(fā)揮著重要作用。去年美國(guó)的《通脹削減法案》促進(jìn)了可再生能源和清潔技術(shù)的擴(kuò)張，將太陽(yáng)能和陸上風(fēng)能的預(yù)期裝機(jī)容量提高了40%，與該法案出臺(tái)之前相比，預(yù)計(jì)將增加超過(guò)20吉瓦的電池容量。因此，到2030年前，美國(guó)電池容量將超過(guò)130吉瓦。

歐洲綠色交易工業(yè)計(jì)劃旨在加速歐洲向可持續(xù)和低碳工業(yè)部門(mén)的轉(zhuǎn)型，除了為BESS開(kāi)發(fā)商提供當(dāng)?shù)刭Y金外，還逐步支持BESS的發(fā)展——例如，英國(guó)有一個(gè)3200萬(wàn)英鎊的儲(chǔ)能資金計(jì)劃。亞洲大國(guó)致力于到2030年前達(dá)到排放峰值，并將電池的發(fā)展視為實(shí)現(xiàn)這一目標(biāo)的手段。未來(lái)幾年，該國(guó)清潔能源發(fā)展將加速，可再生能源在其電力結(jié)構(gòu)中的份額將增加。

需要強(qiáng)調(diào)的是，該國(guó)煤炭產(chǎn)能擴(kuò)張的主要目標(biāo)是解決能源安全問(wèn)題，為國(guó)內(nèi)電力行業(yè)提供足夠的靈活性，以緩解未來(lái)的能源危機(jī)。因此，當(dāng)裝機(jī)容量的增加不能立即轉(zhuǎn)化為發(fā)電量的增加時(shí)，就會(huì)出現(xiàn)這種情況。 自2010年以來(lái)，該國(guó)平均煤炭產(chǎn)能系數(shù)一直在穩(wěn)步下降。與此同時(shí)，該國(guó)太陽(yáng)能和電池生產(chǎn)能力已經(jīng)成熟，預(yù)計(jì)將繼續(xù)投資于本地供應(yīng)鏈擴(kuò)張，以滿(mǎn)足國(guó)內(nèi)需求，并在全球低碳能源價(jià)值鏈上發(fā)揮自身在出口市場(chǎng)上的作用。

到2030年前，BESS市場(chǎng)年裝機(jī)量將達(dá)到110吉瓦，其中58%將在亞洲開(kāi)發(fā)。北美將占約20吉瓦，歐洲將安裝18吉瓦，其余8吉瓦來(lái)自世界其他地區(qū)。這是目前趨勢(shì)的轉(zhuǎn)變，因?yàn)轭A(yù)計(jì)到2023年底的裝機(jī)量將由北美主導(dǎo)，北美將占BESS總裝機(jī)容量的45%。

為了解決國(guó)家和地區(qū)電網(wǎng)的電力安全問(wèn)題，需要公用事業(yè)規(guī)模的電池儲(chǔ)能。微電網(wǎng)——自給自足的地方電網(wǎng)——將變得更加普遍，分布式發(fā)電將占據(jù)主導(dǎo)地位，因?yàn)樘?yáng)能和風(fēng)能等初級(jí)能源并不局限于特定的國(guó)家或地區(qū)。

大部分新增產(chǎn)能將在公用事業(yè)層面，但住宅開(kāi)發(fā)也至關(guān)重要。消費(fèi)者電價(jià)將在短期內(nèi)推動(dòng)獨(dú)立式BESS增長(zhǎng)，住宅電池安裝將隨著屋頂太陽(yáng)能光伏的采用而增長(zhǎng)。擁有高效且價(jià)格合理太陽(yáng)能生產(chǎn)的國(guó)家將成為銜接住宅電池系統(tǒng)的先驅(qū)。

住宅市場(chǎng)在全球范圍內(nèi)落后于公用事業(yè)領(lǐng)域，但我們預(yù)計(jì)這種情況將會(huì)改變。我們預(yù)計(jì)住宅采用將同步增長(zhǎng)，并增加10倍，到2030年前將超過(guò)41吉瓦時(shí)的電池需求。歐洲人是在家中使用BESS的先驅(qū)，因?yàn)槎愂盏置夂透叻鍟r(shí)段的高電價(jià)激勵(lì)了消費(fèi)者。

李峻 編譯自 油價(jià)網(wǎng)

原文如下：

Rystad Sees Major Jump In Battery Storage Capacity Through 2030

·     Rystad: Global battery storage installation capacity will surpass 400GWh by 2030.

·     Government policies are playing an important role in incentivizing investments and battery storage capacity expansion.

·     By 2030, annual Battery energy storage market installations will hit 110 GW, 58% of which will be developed in Asia.

The era of battery energy storage applications may just be beginning, but annual capacity additions will snowball in the coming years as storage becomes crucial to the world’s energy landscape. Rystad Energy modeling projects that annual battery storage installations will surpass 400 gigawatt-hours (GWh) by 2030, representing a ten-fold increase in current yearly additions. 

Battery energy storage systems (BESS) are a configuration of interconnected batteries designed to store a surplus of electrical energy and release it for upcoming demand. Consequently, BESS offers practical solutions for addressing power intermittency challenges. As the world transitions to greener sources of power generation such as solar PV and wind, battery energy storage developments will be critical in meeting future energy demand. 

Global BESS capacity additions expanded 60% in 2022 over the previous year, with total new installations exceeding 43 GWh. A further 74 GWh will be added this year – a 72% increase – primarily driven by cost reduction in BESS systems in addition to incentives in North America, governmental funding programs in Europe, coupled with robust renewable capacity expansion in mainland of Asia.

Assuming a status-quo policy scenario, we project annual installations will surpass 400 GWh by 2030, noting that GWh refers to the energy units, while gigawatts (GW) is the unit of power. This correlates to capacity additions of about 110 GW by 2030 on a power basis, almost equivalent to the peak residential power consumption for France and Germany combined. This projection is generally aligned with our climate change scenario compliant with 1.9-degree Celsius carbon budget.

“Batteries will play a fundamental role in the future of energy production and power demand, solving the intermittency problem of renewable energy generation. To decrease reliance on coal and gas as back-up power generation sources, countries must invest in BESS now,” says Sepehr Soltani, energy storage analyst at Rystad Energy.

Government policies are playing an important role in incentivizing investments and capacity expansion. Last year’s US Inflation Reduction Act has catalyzed renewable and clean tech expansion, boosting expected solar and onshore wind capacity by 40% and expecting to add more than 20 GW battery capacity compared to before the Act. As result, the US battery capacity will exceed 130 GW by 2030.

The European Green Deal Industrial Plan aims to accelerate the transition to a sustainable and low-carbon industrial sector in Europe, and gradually supports the BESS development in addition to the local fundings for BESS developers – for example, a ￡32 million energy storage funding program in the UK.The biggest country in Asia is committed to peaking its emissions by 2030 and sees battery developments as a steppingstone to achieving that goal. The country’s clean energy development will accelerate in the coming years, increasing the share of renewables in its power mix. 

It is relevant to emphasize that The biggest country in Asia's coal capacity expansion primarily targets addressing energy security concerns providing the domestic power sector with sufficient flexibility to mitigate future energy crises. Hence, this is the case when an increase in capacity does not translate into immediate increase in generation. Average coal capacity factors in the biggest country in Asia have been declining steadily since 2010. Meanwhile, the country has matured its solar and battery production capacity and is expected to continue investing in local supply chain expansion to deliver on both domestic demand and the role it plays in the global export market across the low-carbon energy value chain.

By 2030, annual BESS market installation will hit 110 GW, 58% of which will be developed in Asia. North America will account for about 20 GW and Europe will have 18 GW installed, with the remaining 8 GW from the rest of the world. This is a shift from current trends, as the projected installation at the end of 2023 is expected to be dominated by North America, which will account for 45% of total BESS capacity.

Utility scale battery storage is required to address power security concerns in national and regional electricity grids. Microgrids – self-contained, local power grids – will become more prevalent and distributed power generation is set to dominate as primary energy sources such as solar and wind are not limited to specific countries or regions.

Most capacity additions will be at the utility level, but residential developments are also critical. Consumer power prices will drive standalone BESS growth in the short term, with residential battery installations set to grow alongside rooftop solar PV adoption. Countries with efficient and affordable solar energy production will emerge as pioneers in coupled-residential battery systems.

The residential market is lagging the utility segment globally, but we expect that to change. We expect residential adoption to grow in parallel and increase ten-fold, surpassing 41 GWh battery demand by 2030. Europeans are pioneers in utilizing BESS in their homes, as tax credits and high-power prices during peak periods have motivated consumers.