美國(guó)石油巨頭將在2023年大幅增加資本支出

更高的現(xiàn)金流和積極的盈利前景為企業(yè)主管們?cè)黾淤Y本支出預(yù)算提供了更多空間

在2020年石油危機(jī)之后，大多數(shù)能源公司都避免投入巨資擴(kuò)大油氣生產(chǎn)

據(jù)油價(jià)網(wǎng)12月8日?qǐng)?bào)道，幾個(gè)月前，美國(guó)政府曾敦促能源公司停止“戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)暴利”，甚至威脅說(shuō)，如果能源公司不能將利潤(rùn)用于降低美國(guó)人的能源成本和提高油氣產(chǎn)量，就會(huì)對(duì)他們征收暴利稅。這些呼吁發(fā)出之際，大宗商品和能源價(jià)格高企，石油巨頭的利潤(rùn)創(chuàng)下新高。

在2020年石油危機(jī)之后，大多數(shù)能源公司都避免投入巨資擴(kuò)大油氣生產(chǎn)，而是優(yōu)先考慮以股息和股票回購(gòu)的形式向股東們返還更多現(xiàn)金。但有跡象表明，即使眾多能源公司宣布了重大支出和資本支出的增加，能源公司也愿意在未來(lái)幾年投入更多資金。

美國(guó)石油巨頭雪佛龍公司周三宣布，2023財(cái)年資本支出預(yù)算將達(dá)到170億美元，處于其150億至170億美元中期區(qū)間的高端，比今年的預(yù)期支出高出25%以上。

雪佛龍公司表示，上游資本支出包括用于二疊紀(jì)盆地開(kāi)發(fā)的40多億美元；約20億美元用于其他頁(yè)巖和致密資產(chǎn)，約20億美元用于降低碳排放或提高可再生燃料產(chǎn)能的項(xiàng)目，比今年的預(yù)算增加了一倍多。盡管雪佛龍公司2023年的支出將大大高于2020年-2021年疫情流行年份的資本支出，但仍遠(yuǎn)低于2012年-2019年期間300億美元的年均水平。

雪佛龍公司董事長(zhǎng)兼首席執(zhí)行官表示：“盡管存在通貨膨脹，但我們的資本支出預(yù)算仍與之前的指導(dǎo)相符。”

雪佛龍公司的同行埃克森美孚公司尚未宣布大幅增加資本支出，但周三表示，其2023年的資本支出將更接近其年度目標(biāo)200億至250億美元的上限，預(yù)計(jì)到2027年將保持這一水平。埃克森美孚公司表示，其超過(guò)70%的資本投資將部署在美國(guó)二疊紀(jì)盆地、圭亞那、巴西和全球各地的液化天然氣項(xiàng)目。

這些投資將有助于到2027年將埃克森美孚公司的上游日產(chǎn)量增加50萬(wàn)桶油當(dāng)量，達(dá)到420萬(wàn)桶油當(dāng)量。埃克森美孚公司還公布了到2027年前將低排放項(xiàng)目的支出提高15%至170億美元的計(jì)劃。埃克森美孚公司還計(jì)劃在2024年之前將股票回購(gòu)計(jì)劃擴(kuò)大到500億美元，其中包括今年的150億美元。那么，這些錢(qián)從哪里來(lái)呢? 埃克森美孚公司表示，預(yù)計(jì)到2027年前，該公司的“盈利和現(xiàn)金流潛力將比2019年翻一番”，并預(yù)計(jì)到2023年底前，在2019年的水平上節(jié)省90億美元的結(jié)構(gòu)性成本。

12月6日，加拿大第三大原油和天然氣生產(chǎn)商塞諾佛斯能源公司表示，預(yù)計(jì)在2023財(cái)年將支出40億至45億加元，高于今年33億至37億加元的預(yù)期，其中包括28億加元用于維持基礎(chǔ)生產(chǎn)和支持業(yè)務(wù)的維持資本。塞諾佛斯能源公司表示，預(yù)計(jì)將投資12億至17億加元用于優(yōu)化和增長(zhǎng)，包括在加拿大大西洋地區(qū)建設(shè)West White Rose項(xiàng)目 。

塞諾佛斯能源公司還預(yù)測(cè)明年油氣日產(chǎn)量為80萬(wàn)至84萬(wàn)桶油當(dāng)量，同比增長(zhǎng)超過(guò)3%，其中油砂日產(chǎn)量為58.2萬(wàn)至64.2萬(wàn)桶，常規(guī)日產(chǎn)量為12.5萬(wàn)至14萬(wàn)桶。與此同時(shí)，該公司預(yù)計(jì)下游原油日總產(chǎn)量將達(dá)到61萬(wàn)至66萬(wàn)桶，同比增長(zhǎng)近28%。 

上周，巴西石油和天然氣巨頭巴西國(guó)家石油公司（Petrobras)宣布，將在2023-2027年增加大約15%的投資，達(dá)到780億美元，超過(guò)該公司2022-2026年的預(yù)計(jì)支出。在計(jì)劃的780億美元資本支出中，83%(640億美元)用于勘探開(kāi)發(fā)活動(dòng)，67%的勘探開(kāi)發(fā)資本支出預(yù)算將用于鹽下油氣勘探和開(kāi)發(fā)活動(dòng)。該公司還計(jì)劃將減少碳排放的支出從之前計(jì)劃的4%提高到大約6%，并將其脫碳基金從目前的2.48億美元增加一倍多。

與此同時(shí)，巴西礦業(yè)巨頭淡水河谷公司12月7日宣布，計(jì)劃將明年的資本支出從今年的55億美元增加到60億美元，而勘探費(fèi)用將從今年的1.8億美元增加到2026年的3.5億美元。淡水河谷公司還表示，預(yù)計(jì)2023年鐵礦石產(chǎn)量將小幅增加至3.2億噸，而今年為3.1億噸，但預(yù)計(jì)到2030年鐵礦石產(chǎn)量將超過(guò)3.6億噸。與此同時(shí)，銅產(chǎn)量預(yù)計(jì)將從今年的約26萬(wàn)噸躍升至2023年的33萬(wàn)至37萬(wàn)噸，而鎳產(chǎn)量預(yù)計(jì)將從今年的大約18萬(wàn)噸躍升至30萬(wàn)噸。

李峻 編譯自 油價(jià)網(wǎng)

原文如下：

Big Oil Is Preparing To Spend A Lot More In 2023

·     U.S. oil majors are significantly increasing capex in 2023.

·     Higher cash flow and a positive earnings outlook give executives more space to increase capex budgets.

·     The majority of energy companies have avoided spending big to expand production in the aftermath of the 2020 oil crisis.

A couple of months ago, U.S. urged energy companies to stop ‘war profiteering’ and even threatened to slap them with windfall tax if they failed to invest their profits in lowering costs for Americans and increasing production. The calls came at a time when Big Oil has been posting record profits amid high commodity and energy prices. 

The majority of energy companies have avoided spending big to expand production in the aftermath of the 2020 oil crisis, prioritizing returning more cash to shareholders in the form of dividends and share buybacks. Well, but there are signs that companies are willing to spend more in the coming year(s) even as a raft of energy companies have announced major spending and capex hikes.

U.S. oil supermajor Chevron Corp. (NYSE: CVX) announced on Wednesday that FY 2023 capital spending budget will clock in at $17B, at the top end of its $15B-$17B medium-term range and up more than 25% from expected spending in 2022. 

The company said that upstream capex includes more than $4B for Permian Basin development; $2B for other shale and tight assets and $2B to go into projects that lower carbon emissions or increase renewable fuels production capacity, more than double the 2022 budget. Although Chevron’s spending for 2023 will be considerably higher than capital spending in the 2020-21 pandemic years, it’s still much lower than the $30B annual average of the 2012-19 period.

"Our capex budgets remain in line with prior guidance despite inflation," Chairman and CEO Mike Wirth said.

Chevron’s peer ExxonMobil Corp. (NYSE: XOM) has not announced a drastic increase in spending, but on Wednesday said that its capital spending for 2023 will be closer to the top end of its annual target of $20B-$25B, a level it expects to maintain through 2027. The company said more than 70% of its capital investments will be deployed in the U.S. Permian Basin, Guyana, Brazil and LNG projects across the globe. 

These investments will help increase the company's upstream production by 500K boe/day to 4.2M boe/day by 2027. Exxon also unveiled plans to boost spending on lower emission projects by 15% through 2027 to $17B through 2027. Exxon also plans to expand its stock buyback plan to $50B through 2024, including $15B this year. So, where will all that money come from? Exxon says it expects to "double earnings and cash flow potential" by 2027 compared to 2019, and also expects to deliver ~$9B in structural cost savings by year-end 2023 from 2019 levels.

On Tuesday, Canada's third-largest crude oil and natural gas producer Cenovus Energy (NYSE: CVE) said it expects to spend C$4B-C$4.5B in FY 2023, higher than estimates of C$3.3B-C$3.7B for 2022, including C$2.8B of sustaining capital for maintaining base production and support operations. Cenovus said it expects to direct C$1.2B-C$1.7B towards optimization and growth, including the construction of the West White Rose project in Atlantic Canada

Cenovus (CVE) also guided for production of 800K-840K boe/day next year, an increase of more than 3% Y/Y, including oil sands production of 582K-642K boe/day and conventional output of 125K-140K boe/day. Meanwhile, the company expects total downstream crude throughput to clock in at 610K-660K bbl/day, up nearly 28% Y/Y.

Last week, Brazil’s oil and gas supermajor Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. or Petrobras (NYSE: PBR) announced that it will increase 2023-2027 investments by about 15% to $78 billion over the company’s 2022-2026 projected spending. Of the $78 billion planned for capex, 83% or $64 billion is earmarked for E&P activities while 67% of the E&P capex budget will go to pre-salt activities. The company also plans to boost spending to reduce carbon emissions to ~6% of the total compared with 4% in the previous plan, and will see its decarbonization fund more than double the current $248M.

Meanwhile, Brazilian mining giant Vale S.A. (NYSE: VALE) On Wednesday announced plans to increase capex to US$6bn next year from US$5.5bn this year while exploration expenses will reach US$350mn in 2026 compared to $180 million for 2022. Vale also said it expects iron production to only increase slightly to 320 million tonnes in 2023 compared to 310 million tonnes in the current year, but expects production to exceed 360 million tonnes by 2030. Meanwhile, copper production is expected to jump to 335K-370K tons in 2023 from 260K tons this year while nickel production is expected to exceed 300K tonnes from ~180K tons in 2022.